Ford Motor Company shares traded lower Monday, falling 1.1% to $13.65 during the morning session. The automaker is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after the market closes on Tuesday.
Earnings and Macro Context
Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv project Ford will report quarterly earnings of approximately 18 cents per share. The report arrives amid a sensitive macroeconomic backdrop, with key U.S. employment and inflation data due later this week that could influence interest rate expectations and auto demand.
Analyst Focus: Costs and Quality
Wall Street is intently focused on the company's cost management and forward guidance. Piper Sandler maintains an Overweight rating with a $16 price target, suggesting that reduced warranty expenses could significantly improve 2026 earnings, potentially boosting EBIT by $2.8 billion. Conversely, UBS holds a Neutral stance with a $12.50 target, noting Ford's investments in advanced technology while cautioning that returns may take time for a legacy manufacturer.
Operational Headwinds
Ford continues to navigate significant operational challenges. A fire at a Novelis aluminum plant has disrupted material supply for the critical F-Series pickups, potentially reducing production by up to 100,000 vehicles through 2025 with related costs estimated near $2 billion. Separately, U.S. safety regulators have expanded an investigation to include roughly 1.27 million F-150 trucks from the 2015-2017 model years over transmission issues, highlighting ongoing quality and recall risks.
Investor reaction may hinge more on management's commentary regarding 2026 outlook than on the quarterly figures themselves. Concerns over pricing, incentives, electric vehicle losses, or slower progress on warranty costs could overshadow a modest earnings beat.
Ford's earnings release is set for 4:05 p.m. ET Tuesday, followed by a conference call with CEO Jim Farley and CFO Sherry House at 5:00 p.m. ET.
