Shares of Idox PLC continued to trade close to the takeover offer price on Monday, closing unchanged at 71.0 pence. The stock has remained just below the 71.5p per share cash bid from Frankel UK Bidco, a vehicle backed by Long Path, as investors await further developments.
Acceptance Levels Below Threshold
As of February 6, Frankel reported aggregate support of approximately 49.26%, combining Long Path's existing stake with irrevocable undertakings and non-binding letters of intent from other shareholders. This figure remains below the majority threshold required to satisfy the offer's acceptance condition. Earlier disclosures indicated valid acceptances for only 19.12% of Idox shares as of February 5.
The UK Takeover Panel continues to list Idox as in an "offer period," maintaining enhanced disclosure requirements. The narrow spread between the trading price and the offer price suggests the market views completion as probable, though not certain, reflecting both deal risk and the time value of money.
Potential Outcomes and Risks
Should Frankel secure control but not all shares, the group has outlined plans to seek delisting from AIM upon reaching 75% voting rights, with a potential compulsory acquisition at 90%. This could leave remaining holders with a significantly less liquid investment. Conversely, if the bid fails, shares could retreat toward pre-offer levels, with liquidity potentially diminishing rapidly.
Idox provides information management software and geospatial data solutions primarily for public-sector and asset-intensive industries. Current stock movement is driven entirely by takeover dynamics rather than operational developments, with focus centered on shareholder acceptances ahead of the mid-March deadline.
