U.S. natural gas futures experienced a steep decline in after-hours trading Monday, shedding more than 8% to settle near $3.141 per million British thermal units. The drop pushed prices to their lowest level in three weeks, driven primarily by updated weather projections indicating above-average temperatures across key U.S. regions through late February.
According to meteorologists at Commodity Weather Group, warmer conditions are expected across the Midwest and Southern states through February 20. This shift could significantly reduce demand for heating during what is typically a high-consumption period, creating downward pressure on prices. The market is still grappling with the volatile aftermath of a severe cold snap in late January, which drew a record 360 billion cubic feet from storage inventories.
Current supply and demand metrics show a mixed picture. Data from financial analytics firm LSEG indicates average gas output in the Lower 48 states has increased slightly to 106.9 billion cubic feet per day in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. Meanwhile, total U.S. demand—including exports—is projected to ease from 159.5 bcfd this week to 141.4 bcfd next week, with a further decline to 132.6 bcfd anticipated in two weeks. Flows to major liquefied natural gas export facilities have averaged 18.5 bcfd this month.
Executive Shakeup Rattles Expand Energy Investors
In related equity movements, shares of Expand Energy fell 6.4% to $103.24 following the announcement that CEO Domenic Dell'Osso will depart the company. Chairman Michael Wichterich will serve as interim chief executive while the firm searches for a permanent replacement and prepares to relocate its corporate headquarters from Oklahoma City to Houston. Dell'Osso will remain as an external advisor during the transition period.
Analysts noted the market reaction reflects uncertainty surrounding the leadership change, particularly as the company has yet to name a permanent chief financial officer. "This reaction relates to market uncertainty over the changes, especially since EXE has yet to announce the permanent CFO replacement," commented RBC Capital Markets analyst Scott Hanold.
Other energy stocks showed mixed performance. Major producer EQT declined 1.2%, while Antero Resources slipped 0.4%. In contrast, LNG exporter Cheniere Energy gained approximately 1.2% as investors balanced weaker domestic pricing against steady international export demand.
Traders are now focused on upcoming data releases, including Thursday's storage report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, for further indications of inventory withdrawals. Market participants recognize that while current forecasts favor milder weather, late-winter conditions can change rapidly, and any production disruptions or infrastructure issues could quickly tighten supply balances, particularly with LNG facilities continuing to draw substantial volumes for export.
