Global oil prices steadied during Monday's trading session, recovering from earlier declines as diplomatic developments helped soothe immediate supply concerns. Brent crude futures edged up 0.3% to $68.22 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained a similar percentage to reach $63.73.
Market participants pointed to constructive indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran as a primary factor supporting stability. With approximately 20% of global seaborne oil transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, any reduction in regional tensions typically removes a risk premium from prices. Analysts noted that while immediate disruption fears have diminished, the geopolitical premium could quickly return should negotiations falter.
Another significant development came from India, where major refiners including Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Reliance Industries reportedly reduced their intake of Russian crude for March and April loadings. This pullback, occurring as New Delhi works toward a trade agreement with Washington, provided underlying support by limiting global supply availability.
The fundamental backdrop remains complex. The International Energy Agency projects a 2026 supply surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day, yet Brent continues to trade above $65 with the futures curve in backwardation—a structure that typically signals near-term tightness. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate global inventories grew by roughly 520 million barrels during 2025, with China accounting for a substantial portion of that build.
Attention now turns to a series of crucial data releases. The American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory report arrives Tuesday, followed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration's official statistics on Wednesday. Additionally, the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, OPEC's monthly report Wednesday, and the IEA's Oil Market Report Thursday will collectively shape market expectations for supply, demand, and price trajectories.
