U.S. wholesale gasoline futures moved higher at the start of the trading week, with front-month RBOB contracts gaining roughly 1% to approach $2 per gallon. The benchmark settled at $1.9745, an increase of 2.1 cents, after trading in a range between $1.9354 and $1.9788.
The national average price for regular gasoline held steady at $2.902 per gallon, according to the latest data from AAA. This stability at the pump comes despite the upward pressure in wholesale markets, keeping fuel expenses a visible component of consumer inflation calculations.
Market participants are closely monitoring two key factors this week. Midweek U.S. inventory reports will provide crucial data on gasoline stockpiles and refinery utilization rates. Concurrently, developments in indirect diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran are being watched for potential impacts on global crude oil supply and, by extension, refined product markets.
In the broader energy complex, crude oil prices showed modest gains. Brent crude edged up 17 cents to $68.22 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 18 cents to reach $63.73. Analysts note that while the extension of U.S.-Iran talks has eased some immediate supply concerns, a degree of geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in prices.
Refining margins remain robust. The U.S. 3-2-1 crack spread, a key indicator of profitability for turning crude into gasoline and diesel, stood at $24.93 a barrel as of February 8. This healthy margin environment comes ahead of the typical spring maintenance season for refineries.
The near-term risk for gasoline prices is twofold. A significant diplomatic breakthrough with Iran could pressure crude prices lower, potentially dragging gasoline futures down. Alternatively, a larger-than-expected build in U.S. gasoline inventories reported this week could also weigh on the market, especially with seasonal refinery slowdowns approaching.
