S&P Global shares recovered on Thursday, closing 1.7% higher at $397.23. The advance followed a two-day decline that saw the stock drop 2.6% on Wednesday amid elevated trading volume.
The recent volatility was triggered by the company's latest financial outlook. S&P Global reported fourth-quarter revenue of $3.916 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase. However, the firm set its 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share target between $19.40 and $19.65, a range that falls below its previously stated medium-term objectives.
Market participants have expressed caution regarding the company's growth trajectory and margin sustainability. Analysts noted the guidance was "mixed," with one highlighting weaker-than-anticipated free cash flow. The stock's recent performance has mirrored that of software and services companies, as investors focused more on the future outlook than the quarterly results.
CEO Martina Cheung characterized the "pace of AI integration" as "a leap forward," yet concerns persist about how generative artificial intelligence might affect the pricing power of the company's core data, benchmarks, and ratings businesses.
Investors are now looking ahead to upcoming data releases. S&P Global is scheduled to publish initial January figures for billed issuance and exchange-traded derivatives around February 16. These metrics may provide early signals about the health of the ratings pipeline moving forward.
Should worries about AI's impact on sector valuations persist, or if a slowdown in debt issuance pressures transaction income, management could face increased scrutiny from shareholders demanding clearer evidence that both growth and margins will remain robust into 2026.
