Coinbase Global, Inc. reported a substantial net loss for the fourth quarter of 2025, underscoring ongoing pressures in the cryptocurrency market. The exchange posted a quarterly net loss of $667 million, with a notable decline in its core transaction revenue to $983 million. This contributed to a total revenue figure of $1.78 billion, a decrease from the $2.27 billion reported in the same period a year earlier. In after-hours trading following the announcement, shares of Coinbase fell approximately 8% to $141.
Market Sentiment Sours Amid Analyst Downgrades
The disappointing results arrived alongside a wave of cautious analyst commentary. JPMorgan reduced its price target for Coinbase to $290, maintaining an overweight rating but citing concerns over subscription and services revenue growth. More bearishly, Monness, Crespi, Hardt downgraded the stock to a sell rating, expressing skepticism about a near-term recovery in the crypto sector. Analysts pointed to fading momentum in price action and heightened competitive pressures from other global exchanges like OKX, Kraken, and the recently Nasdaq-listed Gemini.
Bitcoin Forecasts Trimmed as ETF Outflows Continue
The broader crypto ecosystem faced its own headwinds. Bitcoin traded near $65,800, down about 3%, as sentiment weakened. Standard Chartered significantly revised its long-term outlook, slashing its end-2026 price target for bitcoin to $100,000 from a previous forecast of $150,000. The bank's analyst, Geoff Kendrick, warned of the risk of "further price capitulation," suggesting bitcoin could fall toward the $50,000 level in the coming months before any potential rebound. This cautious stance was partly attributed to persistent outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have seen billions exit since late 2025.
Within Coinbase's earnings report, some segments showed resilience. Subscription and services revenue reached $727 million, with stablecoin revenue—primarily from USDC—rising to $364 million, driven by higher balances. The company also highlighted a strong cash position of $11.3 billion and share buybacks totaling 8.2 million shares since November. For the current quarter, management provided guidance, noting transaction revenue through February 10 was roughly $420 million and projecting subscription and services revenue between $550 million and $630 million.
Leadership Points to Product Expansion and Volumes
On the earnings call, CEO Brian Armstrong discussed the company's "Everything Exchange" strategy, aiming to facilitate trading beyond crypto into areas like derivatives, equities, and prediction markets. CFO Alesia Haas pointed to "all-time highs" in the company's 2025 product lineup and noted that early in 2026, the platform recorded its largest 24-hour trading volume in over a year. Adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operational profitability, was reported at $566 million for the quarter.
Despite these operational highlights, the immediate market reaction was defensive. Investors are closely monitoring retail and institutional flows, the pace of new product rollouts, and the overall trajectory of crypto asset prices. The interplay between trading volatility and revenue remains a key dynamic; while increased volatility typically boosts transaction fees, declining interest rates can pressure stablecoin revenue, which is tied to reserve yields. As the crypto market navigates this uncertain phase, Coinbase's performance is likely to remain tightly coupled to the fortunes of major digital assets like bitcoin and ether.
