Shares of European parcel locker operator InPost surged 14% at the open on Monday following the announcement of a €7.8 billion ($9.2 billion) takeover bid from a consortium led by FedEx and including private equity firm Advent International. The offer of €15.60 per share represents a 17% premium over the stock's closing price last Friday.
Analyst Views and Deal Structure
Analysts offered mixed initial reactions. Erste Group characterized the bid as "moderately attractive," while Trigon suggested the price may not be sufficient to win over all minority shareholders. The buying group is structured with FedEx and Advent each taking a 37% stake. Founder Rafał Brzoska's A&R vehicle will hold 16%, and investment group PPF will own 10%.
For FedEx, the acquisition provides immediate and significant scale in Europe's growing out-of-home delivery sector, where parcels are delivered to automated lockers or collection points rather than residential addresses. This model is a critical component of e-commerce logistics, balancing delivery speed with efficient return handling.
Strategic Rationale and Shareholder Value
InPost supervisory board chair Hein Pretorius stated the offer provides shareholders with "immediate and certain value." Founder Brzoska framed it as the "next phase of growth" for the company. FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam emphasized the move reflects a "disciplined approach to capital allocation." The deal effectively places a valuation floor under InPost's stock, which has been volatile amid takeover speculation and questions about its capital-intensive expansion outside its core Polish market.
By 11:04 CET, InPost shares were trading at €15.11, up 13.6%, but still below the offer price. This discount typically reflects perceived deal execution risk, including regulatory approvals and the timeline to completion. The consortium anticipates closing the transaction in the second half of 2026, pending regulatory clearances and acceptance by at least 80% of shareholders.
Process and Execution Risks
Attention now shifts to the deal process. Key milestones include filing a draft offer memorandum with Dutch regulators by the end of Q1 2026, followed by publication of the final memorandum and an extraordinary shareholder meeting by the end of Q2. Market focus will be on the firmness of shareholder commitments and the potential for any competing offers or regulatory delays, which could pressure the share price back toward pre-bid levels if deal certainty wavers.
