U.S. gasoline futures posted a slight advance on Monday, with trading activity subdued due to the Washington's Birthday holiday that shuttered equity markets. The March RBOB contract, a key benchmark for New York Harbor wholesale gasoline, settled at $1.9186 per gallon, marking an increase of 0.76 cents for the session.
At the consumer level, the national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded held steady at $2.929, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA). This figure represents a marginal uptick from the prior day and sits approximately 2.7 cents higher than the level seen one week ago. Despite the recent firmness, current pump prices remain below those recorded during the same period last year.
Market Mechanics and Data Delay
The holiday closure introduced logistical wrinkles for energy futures. CME Group did not calculate or publish formal settlement prices for several markets, including the NYMEX where U.S. gasoline futures trade. More significantly, the weekly petroleum status report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), a critical dataset for gauging fuel supply and demand, has been postponed. Originally expected earlier in the week, the report is now scheduled for release on Thursday, February 19.
This delay leaves the market without its customary first major snapshot of U.S. gasoline inventories for the week, increasing price sensitivity to other factors. Traders will scrutinize the forthcoming data for insights into refinery throughput and stockpile levels, seeking clarity on how tight the fuel market is as the winter season concludes and the industry prepares for the annual transition to summer-grade gasoline blends.
Broader Energy Complex and Geopolitical Watch
Crude oil prices also edged higher during the session. Market participants are monitoring several potential catalysts, including the launch of U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions in Geneva on Tuesday. Additionally, the OPEC+ producer alliance is set to reconvene on March 1, having previously paused its program of output increases. Analysts note that ongoing geopolitical disruption concerns are providing underlying support for oil prices.
Analyst commentary highlighted the binary nature of current price risks. SEB analysts suggested that a significant escalation in tensions involving Iran could push Brent crude toward $80 per barrel. Conversely, a de-escalation could see prices retreat toward the $60 level. Tamas Varga of PVM pointed to persistent supply disruption worries as a stabilizing force for the crude market.
Regional Pressures and Refinery Outlook
Specific regional dynamics are also in focus, particularly on the West Coast. California's supply outlook is growing increasingly uncertain as in-state refining capacity declines. Reports indicate the state has been importing gasoline shipments routed through the Bahamas to supplement supply. Industry observers, including Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy, have warned that impending refinery maintenance shutdowns could add between 5 and 15 cents per gallon to retail prices for California drivers.
The broader national market is at an inflection point. The direction for gasoline prices in the coming weeks remains fluid and will be influenced by several competing factors. A easing of geopolitical tensions that weighs on crude oil, or a faster-than-anticipated ramp-up in refinery production post-maintenance, could pull wholesale gasoline costs lower, potentially keeping pump prices close to their winter lows.
Conversely, any unexpected refinery outages or stronger-than-anticipated demand as the driving season approaches would tighten supplies and exert upward pressure. The delayed EIA report on Thursday will provide a crucial piece of the fundamental puzzle for traders and analysts assessing the market's trajectory as February draws to a close.
