In early trading on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, front-month RBOB gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange advanced, reflecting heightened caution among fuel market participants. The contract, a key benchmark for wholesale gasoline in the United States, gained 1.02% to reach $1.9731 per gallon. This upward movement in futures often presages changes in retail fuel costs, as wholesale prices directly influence what consumers ultimately pay at the pump.
Retail Prices Follow Wholesale Gains
Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) confirmed the pass-through to consumers, with the national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline rising to $2.921. This represents an increase of nearly two cents from Monday's level and is approximately four cents higher than the price recorded one week prior. The average price for diesel fuel held relatively steady at $3.659 per gallon, a figure comparable to the same period last year.
Geopolitical Tensions Underpin Market Sentiment
The primary catalyst for the market's unease stems from ongoing geopolitical friction. The U.S. Maritime Administration issued an advisory on Monday, instructing U.S.-flagged commercial vessels to avoid Iranian territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz. This critical maritime chokepoint is vital for global energy flows, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration noting that nearly 20 million barrels of oil transited the strait daily in 2024, accounting for roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption.
Despite this supportive geopolitical backdrop, crude oil futures experienced slight declines. Brent crude eased by 24 cents to $68.80 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 30 cents to $64.06. Analysts suggested this divergence indicates traders are weighing the risk of actual supply disruptions against the potential for the situation to de-escalate, with prices remaining vulnerable to a sharp decline if tensions ease without concrete impact on shipments.
Refinery Dynamics and Seasonal Factors
The gasoline market is also contending with typical seasonal pressures. Refineries are beginning preparations for the annual shift to summer-grade gasoline blends, a process that can temporarily constrain supply. This seasonal transition, combined with the potential for unexpected refinery outages or maintenance delays, often widens the price spread between gasoline and crude oil, particularly in the weeks leading up to the spring turnaround season.
Regional price disparities highlight these complex dynamics. For instance, drivers in Houston saw a significant average increase of 9.7 cents per gallon this month, pushing prices to $2.35, according to data from GasBuddy. Analysts, including Patrick De Haan, attribute initial moves on the West Coast to seasonal patterns that are expected to propagate eastward in the coming weeks.
Inventory Data and Forward Outlook
Market participants are now looking ahead to the next major data release for further direction. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to publish its Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. This report will provide a crucial update on nationwide stockpiles of crude oil and refined products like gasoline and distillates, offering insight into the balance between supply and demand.
The near-term trajectory for gasoline prices appears highly contingent on evolving events. The current risk premium embedded in prices could dissipate rapidly if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz proceeds without incident and diplomatic efforts reduce tensions. In such a scenario, market focus would likely revert to fundamental drivers: underlying consumer demand, inventory levels, and refining profit margins. Traders remain vigilant, monitoring maritime advisories and political statements for any sign of escalation or resolution that could trigger swift price adjustments.
