Micron Technology shares fell in extended trading Tuesday, dropping $9.09 or 2.4% to $374.41, as market sentiment turned cautious over the memory chipmaker's position in Nvidia's next-generation artificial intelligence hardware roadmap.
HBM4 Supply Concerns Surface
South Korean media outlets, citing analysis from semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis, reported that Micron's expected share of HBM4 memory for Nvidia's "Vera Rubin" AI platform has been reduced to zero. The reports indicate Nvidia may allocate all initial HBM4 orders to competitors SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, with supply potentially divided as 70% to SK hynix and 30% to Samsung.
The shift appears driven by Nvidia's increased speed requirements, with the chipmaker reportedly targeting data transfer rates of at least 11 gigabits per second for its HBM4 implementation. Samsung's HBM4 solution is quoted at speeds up to 11.7 Gbps, significantly above the 8 Gbps baseline established by industry standards body JEDEC.
Broader Market Impact
The selling pressure extended beyond Micron, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF declining 0.3%. Nvidia shares retreated approximately 0.5%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, slipped 0.3%.
Despite the negative sentiment, some analysts maintained a constructive long-term view. Deutsche Bank's Melissa Weathers described the current DRAM supply situation as "unprecedentedly" tight and highlighted robust demand for both DRAM and high-bandwidth memory as positive factors for Micron. She referenced a $500 valuation framework based on the company's earnings potential.
Industry Dynamics and Upcoming Catalyst
Industry sources cited by Hankyung suggest Nvidia's initial HBM4 allocation for late 2025 could still include Micron with approximately 20% share, with SK hynix receiving mid-50% and Samsung landing in the mid-20% range. Samsung is reportedly preparing to begin HBM4 shipments as early as the third week of February after clearing Nvidia's quality verification process.
Micron executives are scheduled to present at Wolfe Research's Auto, Auto Tech and Semiconductor Conference Wednesday morning, where investors will be listening for updates on HBM4 qualification progress, supply agreements, and customer demand trends.
