Shares of Micron Technology experienced a significant surge in after-hours trading on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, climbing approximately 9.9% to reach $410.34. The catalyst for this sharp upward move was commentary from the company's Chief Financial Officer, Mark Murphy, who announced that customer shipments of its next-generation High-Bandwidth Memory, known as HBM4, have officially commenced.
Market Analysts React with Upgraded Targets
The news prompted swift reactions from Wall Street analysts. Morgan Stanley elevated its price target for Micron to $450 from a previous $350, maintaining an "Overweight" rating. The firm's analysis highlighted the critical role of HBM in the artificial intelligence ecosystem and noted expectations for Micron to begin supplying chips to Nvidia by the second quarter. In a more aggressive move, Deutsche Bank analyst Melissa Weathers raised her price target substantially to $500 from $300. She pointed to the transformative impact of AI on the memory market, suggesting that tight supplies of DRAM could persist through 2027-2028, though she cautioned that sustained high prices might eventually temper demand.
CFO Provides Context on Demand and Supply
Speaking at the Wolfe Research Auto, Auto Tech and Semiconductor Conference, CFO Murphy provided further context, stating that HBM4 production is ramping ahead of the company's internal schedule. He attributed the strong momentum to robust demand from hyperscale cloud companies, key players in the AI infrastructure build-out. Murphy also addressed recent market concerns, dismissing negative reports about Micron's competitive position in HBM. He emphasized that the company is managing its capacity expansion cautiously to avoid creating a future supply glut, even as current tight conditions are applying upward pressure on memory pricing.
The broader market context revolves around HBM's specialized function. This stacked DRAM technology is designed to operate in close proximity to AI processors, dramatically accelerating data throughput. In an environment where AI chip demand is soaring, securing a reliable supply of high-performance HBM has become a strategic priority for major tech firms, making Micron's execution on HBM4 a closely watched metric for investors.
Financial Backdrop and Forward Guidance
Micron's operational update builds upon a solid financial foundation. In its most recent quarterly report in December, the company posted fiscal first-quarter revenue of $13.64 billion, with non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $4.78. For the ongoing fiscal second quarter, management provided revenue guidance of approximately $18.70 billion, plus or minus $400 million, and projected non-GAAP EPS of $8.42, give or take $0.20.
Furthermore, the company had previously signaled a substantial increase in its capital expenditure plans for fiscal 2026, targeting roughly $20 billion. This investment is aimed squarely at meeting the explosive demand from AI data centers and alleviating the industry-wide memory supply constraints, which executives have warned may extend beyond 2026.
Potential Risks and Market Focus
Despite the positive news, the memory sector is notoriously cyclical and faces execution risks. The ramp of complex new technologies like HBM4 can encounter hurdles related to production yields or delays in customer qualification processes. Additionally, the industry balance could shift if competitors like Samsung and SK Hynix add substantial new capacity during a potential economic downturn, potentially leading to a rapid reversal in the supply-demand dynamic.
Investor attention now turns to whether Micron's stock can sustain its after-hours gains during Thursday's regular trading session. The market will also be keenly focused on the company's upcoming earnings call, scheduled for after the market closes on March 18, according to financial calendars. Traders will be listening for more concrete figures on HBM4 volume, profitability, and an updated outlook on how the AI-driven memory cycle is unfolding.
