Shares of Nvidia Corporation edged higher in after-hours trading Friday, buoyed by a report detailing the company's potential move to deepen its ties with artificial intelligence leader OpenAI. According to the report, Nvidia is close to finalizing an investment of approximately $30 billion in OpenAI. This capital would form part of a broader funding round aiming to raise over $100 billion for the AI developer, which could value OpenAI at around $830 billion. Nvidia has not publicly commented on the speculation.
The reported investment arrives just days before Nvidia is scheduled to release its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year financial results after the market closes on February 25. The company will host a conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern Time that day, with written commentary from the chief financial officer to follow the earnings release. This report is widely viewed as a critical barometer for AI hardware demand and spending trends among major technology firms.
Nvidia has cemented its status as the premier proxy for AI investment, though the sector's rally showed signs of strain early in 2026. Broader market sentiment is also adjusting to a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that overturned expansive tariffs from the previous administration. "It's hard for Nvidia to surprise when everyone expects it to surprise," noted Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower. Analysts like Nick Giorgi of Alpine Macro suggest that CEO Jensen Huang will need to express clear confidence in the spending commitments of Nvidia's key customers during the upcoming earnings call.
The chipmaker holds a substantial 7.8% weighting in the S&P 500 index. For the quarter, analysts polled by LSEG anticipate a 71% surge in earnings per share, with revenue projected at $65.9 billion. However, forecasts for the next fiscal year display a wide dispersion, with EPS estimates ranging from $6.28 to $9.68—a spread deemed "significant" by Melissa Otto of S&P Global Visible Alpha. This uncertainty unfolds against a backdrop where the S&P 500 software and services index has declined roughly 20% year-to-date. While some, like King Lip of BakerAvenue Wealth Management, believe the selloff has been excessive, he acknowledges that certain companies will need to adapt and innovate to navigate the evolving landscape.
A strategic investment in OpenAI would further solidify Nvidia's relationship with a pivotal customer that relies heavily on its graphics processing units for training and deploying advanced AI models. This move underscores the increasingly interconnected nature of the AI supply chain, where chip designers, cloud infrastructure providers, and AI software developers are becoming more interdependent, not only for hardware but also for strategic capital.
This deepening integration raises important questions ahead of the earnings report. Investors will scrutinize management's commentary regarding demand from top-tier customers and whether increased scrutiny within the AI ecosystem is prompting any shifts in the company's approach to cash management or risk assessment.
Options markets are bracing for significant volatility surrounding the earnings announcement. The at-the-money straddle for options expiring on February 27 implies an expected stock price movement of approximately 7%, which is more than double the median swing of 3.2% observed over the past ten earnings periods, according to MarketWatch data.
The situation presents a double-edged sword for Nvidia. While the company could post robust financial figures, its stock may still retreat if its forward guidance or management commentary fails to meet elevated investor expectations, particularly if doubts emerge about the sustainability of AI-related expenditures by its largest clients.
Competitive pressures are also mounting. Rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom are aggressively pursuing opportunities in the data center expansion, offering their own AI accelerators and networking solutions. This intensifying competition has investors watching closely to see if Nvidia can maintain its pricing power and effectively manage supply as the current market cycle progresses.
Looking further ahead, Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference (GTC) is scheduled for March 16-19 in San Jose, with CEO Jensen Huang set to deliver the keynote address on March 16. Traders will monitor Monday's regular session for Nvidia's stock reaction to the OpenAI investment headlines, but the broader direction for the AI trade remains uncertain. The next major catalyst is firmly set for February 25, when the earnings results and Huang's subsequent commentary will be released.
