U.S. energy markets are entering the week facing significant supply-side developments that could influence crude prices and sector performance. Traders are assessing two major factors: expanded U.S. authorizations for Venezuelan oil operations and potential production increases from the OPEC+ alliance beginning in April.
Price Action and Market Context
Benchmark crude prices concluded the previous week with modest gains on Friday but registered weekly declines overall. Brent crude futures settled at $67.75 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $62.89. The slight Friday uptick was partially attributed to softer U.S. inflation data, though market sentiment remained cautious amid supply discussions.
The trading calendar faces adjustments due to the Presidents Day holiday. U.S. markets were closed on Monday, February 16, 2026, compressing the trading week. Consequently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has postponed its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The crucial inventory data, typically released mid-week, is now scheduled for Thursday, February 19.
Corporate Moves and Stock Performance
Major integrated oil companies displayed divergent moves in the last session. Exxon Mobil shares declined approximately 1% to close at $148.45. In contrast, Chevron advanced 0.7% to $183.74. Other producers also saw gains: ConocoPhillips rose 0.6% to $111.43, and Occidental Petroleum climbed 1.2% to $46.07. The oilfield services segment lagged, with SLB dipping 0.5% to $50.39. The broader Vanguard Energy ETF registered a 0.9% increase.
Refining stocks demonstrated notable strength, likely on expectations of increased access to Venezuelan crude. Valero Energy gained about 1.6% to $200.17, with the company reportedly planning to receive up to 6.5 million barrels of Venezuelan crude in March for its Gulf Coast operations. Marathon Petroleum surged roughly 2.6%, and Phillips 66 advanced about 2.3%.
Venezuela Sanctions Update
The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued two general licenses pertaining to Venezuela. These authorizations permit Chevron, BP, Shell, Eni, and Repsol to maintain their existing oil and gas operations in the country. A separate license allows for negotiations regarding new investment deals with Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA, though companies would still require specific approvals to finalize any agreements.
Chevron described the regulatory steps as "important" for supporting energy development and enhancing regional energy security. Analysts suggest the moves could gradually reintroduce Venezuelan barrels to the global market, particularly to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners seeking heavy crude.
OPEC+ Production Outlook
Simultaneously, the OPEC+ coalition is considering whether to restart phased production quota increases as soon as April. According to sources familiar with the discussions, eight member countries are scheduled to review the proposal on March 1. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that seasonal demand typically strengthens during the spring months, which could help absorb additional supply and maintain market balance.
The prospect of coordinated output hikes from OPEC+ presents a clear headwind for oil prices, as increased supply typically exerts downward pressure. If both Venezuelan shipments ramp up and OPEC+ proceeds with raising production quotas, crude markets could shed the geopolitical risk premium that has supported prices in recent months.
Market Implications and Forward Look
The confluence of these supply-side factors creates a challenging environment for energy equities. The immediate focus for traders returning on Tuesday will be positioning ahead of Thursday's delayed inventory report and monitoring any official communications from OPEC+ members ahead of the March 1 meeting.
The reaction of front-month crude futures to these developments will likely dictate near-term direction for energy stocks. Market participants will also watch the Baker Hughes rig count, which last week showed a decline of three active U.S. oil rigs to a total of 409, for signs of producer activity adjustment. The interplay between incremental supply and global demand growth will be critical for sector performance in the coming weeks.
