Brent crude futures dropped more than $1 per barrel on Thursday, pressured by a bearish demand revision from the International Energy Agency and a significant increase in U.S. stockpiles. The international benchmark settled at $68.14, a decline of 1.82%.
Demand Forecast Downgrade
The IEA now projects global oil demand will grow by 850,000 barrels per day in 2026, a downward adjustment from its prior view. The agency also forecasts a supply surplus approaching 4% of global consumption for that year, raising concerns about potential inventory builds.
U.S. Inventory Surge
Adding to the downward pressure, U.S. commercial crude inventories jumped by 8.5 million barrels last week, far exceeding analyst expectations. This substantial build suggests weaker near-term demand from refiners and exporters.
Market attention has pivoted from earlier geopolitical supply concerns to fundamental data and upcoming policy decisions. Analysts note the market lacked momentum to push prices higher without concrete evidence of supply disruptions.
OPEC+ faces a key decision point, with a meeting scheduled for March 1 to review output policy for April. The group's own data indicates a potential modest surplus in the second quarter if production levels are maintained.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects Brent will average $69 in 2025 before declining to $58 in 2026, reflecting expectations of continued supply outpacing demand. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming inventory reports and geopolitical developments for price direction.
