The price of XRP retreated on Monday, shedding roughly 2% to trade near $1.49. The move lower occurred during a subdued session for digital assets, with liquidity constrained by market closures in the United States for Presidents Day and in China for the Lunar New Year holiday. Broader cryptocurrency markets also faced pressure, with Bitcoin and Ethereum declining close to 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively.
Macroeconomic Backdrop and Rate Expectations
Macroeconomic forces continue to exert significant influence on digital asset valuations. Recent comments from Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, delivered on Friday, indicated that interest rates "could go down," though he highlighted persistent inflation within the services sector. Market participants are currently anticipating the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance at the upcoming March 18 meeting.
Fresh inflation data from the U.S. Labor Department showed consumer prices increased 2.4% on an annual basis in January, with a month-over-month rise of 0.4%. Despite these figures, expectations for future rate cuts have not fully dissipated—a dynamic that typically provides support for risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies, at least in the near term.
Analyst Downgrade and Market Sentiment
Adding to the negative sentiment, banking giant Standard Chartered substantially lowered its price forecast for XRP. In a client note cited by financial outlet DL News, the bank reduced its year-end 2026 target for the token to $2.80, a significant cut from a previous projection of $8. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's head of digital assets research, noted that "recent price action for digital assets has been challenging, to say the least." He also warned of the potential for "further declines near-term."
Regulatory Developments and Industry Influence
The regulatory environment remains a pivotal factor for XRP and the broader crypto market. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, which aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework, is currently under consideration in Congress. The legislation, designated H.R.3633, has been passed by the House of Representatives and forwarded to the Senate.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently urged Congressional support for the bill, arguing on February 13 that it would offer "great comfort to the market" as cryptocurrencies navigate a period of volatility. In a related development highlighting the industry's growing Washington presence, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) appointed Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse to its Innovation Advisory Committee on February 12. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig stated the committee's work should lead to "clear rules of the road" for digital assets.
Legal Resolution and Product Mechanics
A major legal overhang for XRP has been resolved. As reported by Reuters, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped its long-running lawsuit against Ripple in August 2025, though it left a $125 million penalty in place.
Meanwhile, product-specific mechanics are also in focus. Asset manager Grayscale announced it is waiving fees on its XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) until February 24, after which the fund's expense ratio will increase to 0.35%. Such fee adjustments can influence investment flows at the margins, as exchange-traded funds often see capital move in response to even minor changes in cost structure.
Risk Scenario and Key Data Ahead
The near-term risk scenario is relatively straightforward: stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data or stubbornly high inflation could push bond yields higher, potentially triggering another sell-off in cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, should progress on the Clarity Act stall in the Senate, the market's anticipation of impending regulatory clarity would face a significant setback.
Market attention now turns to the next major economic release. On Friday, February 20, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its advance estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This high-impact data point possesses the potential to shift interest rate expectations and, by extension, influence risk sentiment across cryptocurrency markets.
