Ambev shares closed at 15.69 reais on Friday, down 0.51%, as the initial post-earnings enthusiasm faded. The stock has lost 3.86% over the past five trading sessions, yet remains up 13.20% year-to-date. Trading volume reached approximately 31 million shares on the B3 exchange.
The broader market also softened, with the Ibovespa slipping 0.61% to 177,284 points. This sets a cautious tone for Monday's open, as traders weigh whether Ambev's recent rally can extend or if profit-taking will dominate.
Strong Q1 Results Underpin Optimism
Ambev reported its first-quarter net profit at 3.89 billion reais, up 2.1% year-over-year. Organic net revenue climbed 8.1% to 22.46 billion reais, driven by Carnival festivities and double-digit growth in premium beer volumes. Normalized EBITDA rose 10.1%, with margins expanding to 33.6%.
CEO Carlos Lisboa called the quarter a “solid first step,” expressing confidence in the beer segment. CFO Guilherme Fleury noted that World Cup cycles historically add 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to industry growth, with the bulk of the impact concentrated in the second and third quarters.
Analyst Reactions Turn Bullish
Following the earnings release, analysts upgraded their outlook. Bradesco BBI’s Henrique Brustolin suggested the quarter could trigger the first upward earnings revisions in some time. BTG Pactual’s Thiago Duarte praised Ambev for “delivering the full package” in pricing, volumes, and margins.
Parent company AB InBev also posted its first volume growth since 2023, with CEO Michel Doukeris celebrating the turnaround with a “Cheers to beer.” Brands like Corona and Michelob Ultra led the gains, as AB InBev benchmarks its 2026 performance against Heineken and Carlsberg.
Risks and Catalysts Ahead
Despite the positive momentum, Ambev faces headwinds. Commodity and currency volatility remain concerns, and the company received fresh tax assessments in April totaling roughly 4.3 billion reais related to foreign tax credits. Ambev has stated it disagrees with the assessments and plans to contest them.
The board has approved interest on capital payments, with one payout scheduled for July 6 and another before year-end. Shares and ADRs will trade ex-IOC starting June 23.
Market Outlook
With no company events on the near-term calendar, the focus shifts to market dynamics. Investors must decide if Friday’s decline was merely profit-taking after May’s rally or if the stock requires another catalyst to push higher. The upcoming World Cup cycle may provide the demand boost needed to sustain the upward trajectory.