SÃO PAULO, July 22, 2026 — Shares of Banco Bradesco S.A. (BVMF:BBDC4; NYSE:BBD) rose on Wednesday, supported by a broad market rally, but the bank's earnings target for 2026 is becoming increasingly challenging. Preferred shares closed at R$18.89, up 1.8%, while the New York ADR advanced 1.4% to $3.71, with active trading in both sessions.
The Ibovespa climbed up to 2.35% by the afternoon, reflecting widespread buying that lifted Bradesco along with other blue chips. However, beneath the positive price action, investors are focusing on the bank's ability to meet its full-year guidance. To reach the lower end of the 2026 net interest income (NII) after provisions target, the bank must generate an average of R$10.54 billion per quarter from Q2 through Q4, a 1.5% increase over the R$10.384 billion reported in Q1.
Guidance and Required Run Rates
Bradesco's management has set a 2026 NII after provisions guidance range of R$42 billion to R$48 billion. The lower bound of R$42 billion implies a modest acceleration, while the midpoint of R$45 billion would require an 11.1% jump from Q1 levels. The upper end of R$48 billion would demand a 20.8% increase, a significantly steeper climb. Investors now have a tangible quarterly benchmark to monitor, with Q2 results due on August 5.
Recurring profit for the first quarter rose 16.1% to R$6.81 billion, with return on average equity at 15.8%. However, provisions surged 26.5%, outpacing the 16.4% growth in total NII, highlighting rising credit costs. Fee income grew 6.2%, above the full-year guidance of 3%–5%, while insurance income jumped 20.4%, far exceeding the 6%–8% forecast. Expenses increased 7.8%, near the upper end of the 8% target.
CEO Comments and Portfolio Trends
Chief Executive Marcelo Noronha stated, “We will continue to grow and maintain the pace,” adding that the bank is seeking increased guarantees across its loan portfolio. This strategy is benefiting payroll loans, auto financing, and secured working capital. The loan portfolio expanded 8.4% year-over-year, though delinquencies over 90 days rose to 4.2%.
Peer Comparison and Analyst Views
Among Brazilian private banks, Bradesco outperformed Itaú Unibanco (BVMF:ITUB4; NYSE:ITUB), which gained 0.5%, and Santander Brasil (BVMF:SANB11; NYSE:BSBR), which edged up 0.3%. Itaú maintains a profitability edge with a 24.8% ROE in Q1 versus Bradesco's 15.8%, a nine-point gap. XP Investimentos projects Q2 profit of R$6.9 billion, up 15%, with ROE steady at 15.8% and credit costs stable.
Bradesco entered its quiet period on Wednesday and will release Q2 results after the close on August 5, followed by a webcast on August 6. The key metric to watch is NII after provisions; if Q2 comes in near R$10.54 billion, it would meet the required average for the remaining quarters. A higher figure would ease pressure for the rest of the year.
Risks and Outlook
Management has flagged risks from legacy rural-credit deterioration and a specific wholesale case. Provisions have grown faster than NII, and any further slippage would raise the required run-rate for the second half. Investors will be closely watching the Q2 report for signs of whether the bank can sustain the necessary pace to hit its 2026 targets.