Gold prices advanced for the third consecutive session on Thursday, buoyed by a softer US dollar and declining Treasury yields. The precious metal's upward momentum has been supported by growing optimism over a potential peace deal between the United States and Iran, alongside easing inflation expectations.
Spot gold rose 1% to $4,738.86 per ounce by 0728 GMT, building on Wednesday's 3% surge. US gold futures for June delivery added 1.2%, reaching $4,748.50. The rally extended across the metals complex, with silver jumping 2.6% to $79.31 an ounce, platinum advancing 1% to $2,081.68, and palladium picking up 1.3% to $1,556.79.
Dollar Weakness and Rate Dynamics
The dollar index hovered just above a three-month low, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note slipped 0.6% for the week. Lower bond yields typically benefit gold, as the non-yielding asset becomes more attractive compared to interest-bearing government debt. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, noted that gold's gains were supported by dollar softness.
Market participants are now closely watching the April US jobs report, scheduled for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report is expected to show a gain of 62,000 non-farm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, according to a Reuters survey of economists.
Geopolitical Developments
Geopolitical factors have added a layer of support for gold. US President Donald Trump has touted a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, as Tehran considers a US peace offer. However, sources indicate that significant sticking points remain, particularly regarding US demands on Iran's nuclear activities and access through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jonathan Cohn, head of US rates desk strategy at Nomura, pointed out that the US economy has remained "quite resilient through the conflict," which could influence the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory.
Central Bank Demand and Outlook
Central bank buying and economic uncertainty continue to underpin gold prices. A Reuters poll of 31 analysts and traders pegged the median gold price for 2026 at $4,916 per ounce, marking the highest annual forecast in Reuters surveys since 2012. StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell cited "underlying tailwinds" for gold, though she flagged the $5,500 level as a stretch.
However, the outlook remains conditional on economic data. A stronger-than-expected payrolls print could lift yields and the dollar, potentially reversing gold's recent gains. Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at ATFX Global, noted that "whether a deal is finalized" and the pace of capital flows remain key uncertainties.
For now, gold's price action is being driven more by interest rate expectations than by safe-haven flows. If the jobs data comes in soft, that narrative could strengthen. But a robust reading might quickly shift the script, reintroducing volatility to the precious metals market.
