Short sellers have increased their bets against Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:GRAB) ahead of its second-quarter earnings report, with short interest rising 4.8% to 253.1 million shares as of June 30, according to data released Friday. During the same period, the stock gained 8.7%, climbing from $3.46 to $3.76.
Short Interest Details
The short position represents approximately $995 million in notional value, based on Friday's closing price of $3.93. Days to cover, a measure of how long it would take to close all short positions based on average volume, stood at 4.4 trading days. This metric becomes particularly relevant as Grab prepares to report its second-quarter results after U.S. markets close on August 3, providing a clear catalyst for both bulls and bears.
The data, published by FINRA with a settlement date of June 30, reflects positions as of that date, excluding any activity in the first nine days of July.
Buyback Program in Focus
On the bullish side, Grab has initiated a $250 million accelerated share repurchase program, with banks providing upfront shares and settling later. A price-dependent plan allows for up to $150 million in additional buybacks. Initially, Grab received approximately 54.9 million shares. At Friday's price, the full $400 million program could repurchase around 102 million shares, representing nearly 40% of the latest short interest, though the final count will depend on execution prices and terms.
Recent Performance and Outlook
Grab's stock managed only a 0.8% gain for the week ending July 10, underperforming the Nasdaq Composite's 1.7% rise and Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) 7.6% surge. Trading volume on Friday was muted at 24.88 million shares, just 47% of the 65-day average. The stock is down 21.2% year-to-date in 2026.
The company raised its outlook in May after first-quarter revenue rose 24% to $955 million, with adjusted EBITDA jumping 46% to $154 million. CFO Peter Oey stated the results "keep us firmly on track" for 2026 revenue between $4.04 billion and $4.10 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $720 million.
Key Catalysts Ahead
The upcoming earnings report will be the first to include results from PT Super Bank Indonesia Tbk (IDX:SUPA), which Grab consolidated starting in May. Superbank, serving over 6 million customers and posting its first full-year profit in 2025, will now contribute to Grab's financials. The company plans to update group guidance in August.
However, challenges remain. Grab and GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (IDX:GOTO) reduced per-trip commissions for two-wheel drivers from 20% to 8% starting July 1, raising concerns about driver earnings unless volumes or other revenue streams compensate. Additionally, Grab completed its acquisition of U.S. digital-finance firm Stash on July 1, picking up a 50.1% stake with an agreement to buy the remainder over three years. The deal closed after the second quarter, so its results won't appear in the upcoming report.
Market Implications
The positioning creates a two-way risk. Strong second-quarter results, improved guidance, or significant buyback execution could force short sellers to cover, driving the stock higher. Conversely, weaker margins from incentives, the Indonesia commission shift, or higher capital needs for banking and acquisitions could pressure the stock after its late-June bounce.
With U.S. markets reopening Monday, investors will focus on upcoming economic data, including June CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, and retail sales on Thursday, along with major bank earnings. As Michael Reynolds, VP of investment strategy at Glenmede, noted, "It just seems like a lot of factors coming to a head all at once." Until Grab reports on August 3, macroeconomic headlines and market sentiment are likely to drive the stock.
