Nebius Group (NBIS) shares jumped 11.47% in after-hours trading Wednesday following a regulatory filing that revealed a prominent AI-focused investment fund had acquired a significant stake in the company. The move underscores growing investor interest in the infrastructure layer of the artificial intelligence boom.
A Schedule 13G filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission showed that Situational Awareness LP, along with affiliated parties, now holds a 5.6% beneficial ownership stake in the AI cloud computing company. The filing, which is used by passive investors crossing the 5% threshold, reported shared beneficial ownership of 12,410,060 Class A shares. Leopold Aschenbrenner, a managing partner and control person at the fund, was listed among the holders, along with Carl Shulman as co-portfolio manager.
The disclosure comes amid a remarkable run for Nebius, whose shares have climbed approximately 444% over the past year. The rally has been fueled by a string of major AI infrastructure deals and a planned $2 billion investment from Nvidia, as reported by The Motley Fool on Wednesday. The stock's surge reflects a broader market shift as investors look beyond dominant players like Nvidia and top cloud providers to companies that lease computing power, chips, and data-center capacity for AI development.
Nebius provided further ammunition for bulls earlier this month when it reported first-quarter financial results. Revenue surged to $399 million, a 684% increase compared to the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $129.5 million, a key metric that analysts use to gauge whether AI demand is translating into operating profit. The company also highlighted a major customer win: Meta agreed in March to purchase at least $12 billion in AI computing capacity from Nebius starting in early 2027, with the potential to expand the deal to $27 billion over five years. CEO Arkady Volozh said the agreement should accelerate the build-out and growth of Nebius's main AI cloud business.
Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish, though not universally so. Citi's Tyler Radke maintained a Buy rating and raised his price target to $287 as of May 15, citing stronger demand and rising GPU prices. Goldman Sachs's Alexander Duval also reaffirmed a Buy rating, lifting his target to $234. Morgan Stanley's Josh Baer kept a Hold rating but increased his target to $144. On Seeking Alpha, The Curious Analyst assigned a Strong Buy rating with a $342 target, projecting 2027 revenue of approximately $6.9 billion, based on the company's ability to convert AI infrastructure demand into recurring revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
The competitive landscape for GPU and power resources remains intense. Reuters reported that U.S. tech firms are scrambling for limited supplies from newer cloud providers like Nebius and CoreWeave. Nebius has already secured significant agreements with both Microsoft and Meta. Nvidia announced in March its planned $2 billion investment in the company. However, power availability continues to be a major constraint. Andrey Korolenko, Nebius's chief product and infrastructure officer, stated last week that "power remains a key constraint for AI infrastructure build-outs." The company recently announced a partnership with Bloom Energy to bring 328 megawatts of fuel-cell capacity online this year.
The build-out comes with substantial execution risk and capital requirements. Nebius spent $2.47 billion on property, equipment, and intangible assets in the first quarter alone. The Bloom Energy partnership also flagged technical and operational risks tied to scaling up power, as well as the need to secure additional growth capital. While a hot stock can facilitate funding expansion, it offers little cushion for any setbacks.
The Situational Awareness disclosure brings a well-known holder into a stock that investors are increasingly viewing as a pure-play AI infrastructure bet. But the real test ahead lies in translating filings, price targets, power deals, and chip supply into actual computing capacity for customers.
