NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) saw its American depositary receipts decline 3.62% on Thursday, closing at $4.79, even after the electric vehicle maker reported a record number of deliveries for June. The market's reaction highlights investor focus on the company's second-quarter delivery miss and the implications for revenue per vehicle.
NIO delivered 40,597 vehicles in June, a 62.9% increase year-over-year, bringing total second-quarter deliveries to 107,658 units. This represents a 49.4% quarterly gain but fell short of the company's guidance range of 110,000 to 115,000 vehicles provided in May. The shortfall of 2,342 units, while relatively small, has significant implications for revenue targets.
Revenue Per Delivery Becomes Key Metric
NIO had guided second-quarter revenue to be between RMB32.777 billion and RMB34.436 billion. With actual deliveries coming in at 107,658, the company now needs to achieve an average revenue per delivery of approximately RMB304,500 to reach the low end of its guidance. This is notably higher than the implied RMB297,973 per delivery based on the guided delivery range and is close to the first-quarter actual of RMB305,900 per delivery.
The math suggests NIO must maintain or improve its product mix and pricing power to meet its financial targets. The stock's decline reflects concerns that the company may need to rely on higher-margin models or additional revenue streams to compensate for the volume shortfall.
Delivery Mix Analysis
NIO's June delivery breakdown shows a shift in brand composition. The core NIO brand accounted for 21,908 vehicles, or 54% of total deliveries. The ONVO brand contributed 11,743 units (28.9%), down 2.4% from May, while the FIREFLY brand delivered 6,946 vehicles (17.1%), up 22.7% month-over-month.
Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin attributed the delivery miss partly to weaker sales of the ES8 SUV, with some customers reportedly waiting for the five-seat ES8 variant, which opened presales on June 28. The analysts still expect NIO to achieve non-GAAP break-even in the second quarter, supported by the ES9 and an estimated 18% gross margin.
Peer Comparison and Market Context
NIO outperformed both XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) and Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:LI) in June deliveries but was the only one of the three to miss its quarterly guidance. XPeng reported 40,126 June deliveries and 103,295 for the quarter, within its 100,000-106,000 range. Li Auto posted 30,895 June deliveries and 98,330 for the quarter, in line with its 95,000-100,000 guidance.
BYD Co. (SHE:002594) reported global BEV deliveries of 557,090 for the second quarter, with total June sales rising 5.5% to 403,472 vehicles, driven by a 94.7% surge in exports. Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) sold 89,091 China-made cars in June, up 24.4%.
Market Outlook
U.S. equity markets were closed Friday, July 3, for the Independence Day holiday, making Thursday the last regular trading session before the long weekend. Trading volume in NIO shares was approximately 35.2 million, near the 50-day average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.14% on the day, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.80%.
The China Passenger Car Association expects overall car sales in China to decline 11% this year, adding pressure on EV makers to compete on pricing and model mix rather than just volume. NIO's next challenge will be navigating this environment while meeting its revenue and margin targets.
