NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) shares climbed 4.8% to close at $5.02 on Monday in New York, outperforming rivals XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV) and Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:LI) as fresh data highlighted a shift toward higher-priced models. The Chinese electric vehicle maker's main brand achieved an average transaction price of 443,000 yuan ($65,300) in June, according to data from CnEVPost, driven by a surge in deliveries of the premium ES9 SUV.
The stock's advance came despite NIO's recent delivery numbers falling short of its own guidance. The company reported 40,597 vehicles delivered in June, up 62.9% year-over-year, and 107,658 units for the second quarter. However, the quarterly figure missed the company's forecast range of 110,000 to 115,000 by about 2.1%. The price mix data provided investors with a clearer picture of the company's performance, suggesting that the delivery miss may not be as concerning as initially feared.
NIO's main brand accounted for 21,908 deliveries in June, representing 54% of the group's total. The implied transaction value for the main brand alone was approximately 9.71 billion yuan ($1.43 billion). The remaining deliveries came from the ONVO and FIREFLY sub-brands, which totaled 11,743 and 6,946 units, respectively. Price data for these lower-priced lines was not disclosed.
The strong performance of the ES9 model was a key driver. Deutsche Bank analyst Wang Bin's team estimated that June ES9 deliveries reached about 8,000 units, with a non-cancellable backlog exceeding 40,000 vehicles. The analysts believe NIO is on track to achieve non-GAAP break-even for the quarter. They attributed the delivery shortfall primarily to lower-than-expected ES8 deliveries, as customers awaited the launch of the new five-seat ES8 model.
Looking ahead, NIO has a significant catalyst on July 9, when it is scheduled to launch the new five-seat ES8. Pre-orders for the model began on June 28. The new SUV targets the premium large five-seat segment, which could further boost average transaction prices and margins. CFO Stanley Yu Qu noted in May that the company's vehicle margin stood at 18.8% for the first quarter, and founder and CEO William Bin Li described the current period as an "intensive new product launch and delivery cycle."
Despite the positive price mix data, analyst expectations for NIO remain mixed. MarketBeat's consensus rating for NIO is Hold, with a 12-month price target of $6.70, implying about 33% upside from current levels. This compares favorably to Li Auto's Reduce rating and $17.30 target, but trails XPeng's Hold rating and $25.51 target, which suggests 87.8% upside. The wide spread in analyst targets underscores the importance of margin trends for NIO's stock valuation.
In Monday's trading, XPeng gained 3.8% to $13.58, while Li Auto declined 1% to $11.91. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) rose 2.5%, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) added 0.8%. NIO's relative strength reflects investor optimism about its premium strategy, though the stock still faces headwinds from the broader competitive landscape in China's EV market.
