Novo Nordisk's Copenhagen-listed B shares fell 4.2% to DKK 272.00 on Monday, underperforming the OMX Copenhagen 25 index's 0.9% decline, even as the company announced a major milestone for its oral Wegovy formulation. The U.S.-listed shares also dropped approximately 4.6% to $41.02.
The Danish drugmaker revealed that Wegovy tablets have surpassed 3 million U.S. prescriptions since their January 5 launch, equating to roughly one filled every five seconds. Notably, over 80% of new prescriptions came from patients new to GLP-1 therapy, which mimics a gut hormone involved in appetite and blood-sugar control, indicating the pill is attracting fresh patients rather than simply converting existing injection users. Jamey Millar, Novo's U.S. operations chief, noted that patients and doctors are making "choices that fit their needs."
However, the positive demand data failed to lift the stock, as investors focused on whether robust prescription volumes can translate into sustainable profits amid intense competitive pressures. The key concern is whether Novo can maintain pricing power and margin while Eli Lilly leverages its broader obesity drug portfolio and AstraZeneca advances its own oral candidates.
Eli Lilly shares rose after presenting data for retatrutide, its next-generation obesity treatment, at the American Diabetes Association meeting in New Orleans. The lower 4 mg dose achieved roughly 19% weight loss, leading J.P. Morgan analyst Chris Schott to suggest Lilly could be "further extending its leadership position." RBC analyst Trung Huynh echoed this sentiment, stating that the depth of Lilly's portfolio shows "leadership growing rather than a narrowing gap."
AstraZeneca added to the competitive landscape, reporting that patients lost 10.5% of body weight after 26 weeks in a mid-stage trial of elecoglipron, a once-daily obesity pill, with the highest dose showing 11.8% loss after 36 weeks. Sharon Barr, AstraZeneca's head of biopharma research and development, highlighted a "very low rate of discontinuation," a critical factor in a market where gastrointestinal side effects often determine patient adherence.
Novo also presented pipeline updates, announcing that its once-weekly CagriSema combination met goals across three phase 3 diabetes trials, reducing HbA1c and body weight. Martin Holst Lange, Novo's chief scientific officer, called the results "promising" and said the drug could become the first amylin and GLP-1 combination therapy for type 2 diabetes.
Despite these developments, the stock's reaction underscores that investors are prioritizing competitive dynamics over near-term volume metrics. While Wegovy pill volume is encouraging and CagriSema may become relevant later, Eli Lilly's broader obesity pipeline remains the benchmark for comparison.
Novo had regained some footing in May when the Wegovy pill's first-quarter sales reached DKK 2.26 billion, nearly double analyst consensus, according to Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten. The company also narrowed its expected 2026 decline in adjusted sales and operating profit to 4%-12%, from an earlier 5%-13% drop.
However, the risk remains that large prescription counts may not translate into significant revenue if patients stay on lower-priced starter doses or if discounts deepen. Barclays analyst James Gordon noted last month that the initial launch had gone "better than people thought," but warned of "quite a lot of moving parts," including whether patients step up to higher doses. Novo has also cautioned about U.S. pricing pressure, competition, and semaglutide patent expiries in some markets outside the United States.
The downside scenario is that Novo continues to win prescriptions but loses the earnings argument, leaving investors focused less on headline prescription milestones and more on dose mix, net prices, and whether Lilly's next drugs reset expectations again. Monday's market action delivered a blunt verdict: a big Wegovy pill number helped the story, but it did not settle it.
