NEW YORK, July 10, 2026 – Shares of Polibeli Group Ltd (NASDAQ: PLBL) surged 26.48% on Friday, closing at $8.12 after gaining $1.70. The rally added approximately $623 million to the company's implied equity value, based on 366.4 million ordinary shares outstanding. However, the stock slipped 1.2% to $8.02 in after-hours trading.
Friday's single-session gain was 23.6 times Polibeli's 2025 revenue of $26.42 million. At the close, the implied market capitalization reached roughly $2.98 billion, translating to a price-to-sales multiple of about 113 times. Despite the sharp rebound, Polibeli still ended the week down 20.86%.
Trading volume was exceptionally heavy, with 1.49 million shares changing hands—approximately 12 times the 65-day average. For context, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.29% on Friday and posted a weekly gain of 1.74%.
AI Data Center MOU Sparks Rally
The surge came eight days after Polibeli announced it had signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Thailand-based Authaikam to explore building an AI computing center with up to 100 megawatts of capacity. The company emphasized that no final decision has been made to proceed or invest, and any project will depend on feasibility studies, funding, regulatory approvals, and definitive agreements.
While the proposed scale is significant, it remains highly speculative. In comparison, GDS Holdings (NASDAQ: GDS), a major high-performance data-center operator, reported booking about 200 MW of net new capacity in the first quarter and projected nearly RMB 9 billion ($1.3 billion) in capital spending for 2026. GDS CEO William Huang described the quarter's bookings as “the highest level ever for a single quarter.” These figures highlight the execution gap between Polibeli's preliminary proposal and established operators.
Financial Struggles and Liquidity Concerns
Polibeli’s core business remains goods trading and supply chain services, which saw revenue decline 12.6% in 2025. Gross profit was just $1.94 million, with an operating loss of $7.56 million and a net loss of $5.97 million. More critically, the company ended 2025 with only $1.80 million in cash, having burned $6.35 million on operations. Total liabilities stood at $62.95 million against a shareholders' deficit of $45.42 million, meaning liabilities exceed assets.
Liquidity is a major risk. The company’s tight ownership structure exacerbates volatility: Xingyun International held 360 million of the 366.4 million shares as of September 30, 2025, leaving just 6.39 million shares in public hands. Friday’s trading volume of 1.49 million represented about 23% of that free float.
Registration and Dilution Risks
An F-1 registration statement that took effect June 24 covers 30.10 million existing Class A shares for resale—about 4.7 times the historical trading float outside Xingyun’s block—plus 4.47 million shares tied to warrants exercisable at $11.50. While the registration itself does not cause dilution, actual sales could significantly increase tradable supply, and full warrant exercise would add roughly 1.2% to the share count.
For now, Friday’s move reflects optimism that Polibeli may enter the AI data center space, but tangible evidence—a signed deal, secured land and power, committed customers, and detailed funding plans—remains absent. Investors are betting on potential, not proven data-center revenue.
