Shares of S&P Global experienced a sharp decline in Tuesday's trading session, falling approximately 7.4% to $411.47, following the release of its financial projections for 2026 that fell short of market expectations. The stock had earlier plunged nearly 19% intraday, touching a low of $360, before paring some losses. The downturn was triggered by the company's guidance for adjusted earnings per share in the range of $19.40 to $19.65 for 2026, which came in below the consensus analyst estimate of $19.94, according to data from LSEG.
Broader Sector Pressure Emerges
The disappointing outlook from S&P Global sent ripples across the financial data and analytics sector, prompting a broader reassessment of growth assumptions. Shares of Moody's dropped roughly 5%, while FactSet and MSCI declined approximately 2% and 2.7%, respectively. This collective weakness highlights investor concerns about the durability of growth in an industry that provides essential data and benchmarks, a trade that has recently appeared crowded. The sector is at a critical juncture, with market participants attempting to distinguish between firms that can leverage artificial intelligence to enhance products and reduce costs and those that may face pricing pressures as AI tools become more commoditized and widely accessible.
Fourth-Quarter Performance and Forward Guidance
For the fourth quarter, S&P Global reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.30, slightly missing expectations, on revenue that increased 9% to $3.92 billion. Looking ahead, the company anticipates organic constant-currency revenue growth of 6% to 8% for 2026, a metric that excludes the impacts of foreign exchange fluctuations and merger and acquisition activity. The firm stated it would provide formal GAAP earnings guidance following the planned spin-off of its Mobility business, which is expected to be completed around mid-2026. CEO Martina Cheung emphasized that the company's AI initiatives represented "a leap forward for our clients and the business."
Analyst reaction to the report was cautious. BMO Capital Markets noted the company "reported a narrow EPS miss" and that its "2026 guidance missed consensus," highlighting particular disappointment surrounding the Ratings segment. Stifel characterized the results as "mixed" and suggested the stock was "likely to be pressured" in the near term.
Market Context and Underlying Business Dynamics
The sell-off arrives at a sensitive moment for the financial information industry. S&P Global's Ratings business is cyclical, typically benefiting from increased corporate debt issuance, which drives fee revenue. In a related development, Alphabet announced on Tuesday the sale of $20 billion in bonds to help fund its escalating investments in AI infrastructure, underscoring the continued reliance of major technology firms on debt markets. However, the inherent risk is clear: a downturn in issuance volume or intensified price competition could simultaneously pressure both the Ratings division and subscription-based data services. The impending Mobility spin-off adds another layer of complexity, introducing uncertainty regarding its timing, associated costs, and the post-transaction margin profile for the remaining entity.
Despite the sector-specific turmoil, the broader equity market demonstrated resilience. Major U.S. stock indexes opened higher on Tuesday as investors digested the latest retail sales figures and looked ahead to additional economic data scheduled for release later in the week.
Looking Ahead: Moody's Earnings on Deck
Investors will soon receive another key data point for the sector when Moody's Corporation reports its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results. The release is scheduled for Wednesday, February 18, before the opening of trading in New York. This report will be closely scrutinized for any confirmation of the sector-wide growth concerns highlighted by S&P Global's guidance or for signs of divergent strength.
The episode underscores the heightened sensitivity of financial market data providers to forward guidance in the current environment. As these firms navigate the dual challenges of integrating transformative AI technologies and managing cyclical business lines, their stock performance is likely to remain volatile, closely tied to perceptions of sustainable, high-quality growth versus exposure to economic cycles.
