SoFi Technologies (SOFI) shares traded near $16 on Wednesday, little changed from last week's post-earnings decline, as the market continued to digest the fintech firm's record first-quarter results and an unchanged full-year outlook.
Record Q1 Results, but Guidance Holds Steady
The company reported GAAP net revenue of $1.10 billion for the first quarter, up 43% year-over-year, and net income of $166.7 million, or 12 cents per diluted share. Adjusted net revenue rose 41% to $1.09 billion. Despite the strong performance, SoFi kept its 2026 revenue forecast unchanged at approximately $4.655 billion in adjusted net revenue, with adjusted EBITDA near $1.6 billion and adjusted EPS around 60 cents.
The decision to hold guidance flat, even after a blowout quarter, has become a focal point for investors. CEO Anthony Noto acknowledged the market's reaction, telling American Banker, "Generally, when you don’t raise guidance, you give people something to worry about." He attributed the decision to changed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts—the company now anticipates no rate cuts in 2026, compared to its earlier call for two.
Loan Originations and Membership Hit Records
Lending activity remained robust, with record quarterly loan originations of $12.2 billion. This included $8.3 billion in personal loans, $2.6 billion in student loans, and $1.2 billion in home loans. SoFi also added 1.055 million new members in the quarter, another all-time high, bringing total membership to 14.7 million.
Despite these metrics, analysts remain divided. William Blair analyst Andrew Jeffrey noted that SoFi "did not flow through" first-quarter revenue and EBITDA upside, warning that "the Street will hate these results."
Credit and Loan-Platform Risks in Focus
Investor concern centers on SoFi's Loan Platform Business, which underwrites loans for third-party firms. The platform handled $3 billion in personal loans for outside firms in Q1, down from $3.6 billion in the previous quarter. Jeffrey commented that "private credit woes are hitting home," highlighting potential risks if borrower quality deteriorates and charge-offs increase.
CEO Noto countered that demand for SoFi's loan volume exceeds contractual requirements, indicating no immediate credit problems. However, the market remains cautious.
Wall Street Split on SoFi
Analyst ratings are mixed. According to MarketBeat, seven analysts rate SoFi a Buy, 11 say Hold, and three recommend Sell, with a consensus Hold rating and an average price target of $23.22. Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating with a $16 price target.
SoFi's stock performance diverged from peers on Wednesday: Affirm (AFRM) fell 2.1% to $65.38, while LendingClub (LC) rose 0.6% to $17.17. SoFi's shares remain in a wait-and-see pattern, with investors seeking clearer signs of earnings momentum before committing.
In summary, SoFi's rapid growth and record profitability are overshadowed by management's decision to hold guidance steady and persistent credit concerns. Until these uncertainties are resolved, the market appears content to watch from the sidelines.
