Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) is set to join the Nasdaq-100 index before the market opens on Tuesday, just 15 trading days after its June 12 debut. The move has drawn significant attention, with JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) estimating that passive inflows from index tracking funds could reach $4.3 billion.
The stock last traded at $160.42, up roughly 19% from its $135 initial public offering price, but still down about 29% from its June 16 peak of $225.64. This volatility has created a complex backdrop for the index addition, as the usual forced-buying dynamic may be less straightforward than typical rebalancing events.
According to Reuters, the stock saw more than $26 billion in trading volume on Monday alone, with most of that activity concentrated in the final seconds of the session. The projected $4.3 billion in Nasdaq-100 inflows represent roughly 16.5% of that total turnover, a substantial but not overwhelming proportion. However, the float is relatively tight: the $4.3 billion amounts to about 4.3% of the shares listed for trading, out of a total market capitalization near $100 billion, with the rest held by Elon Musk, insiders, and employees.
Wall Street is divided on the stock's prospects. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), led by analyst Adam Jonas, has set a price target of $300, implying an 87% upside from current levels. Jonas values SpaceX less as a launch company and more as an artificial intelligence infrastructure play, calling it 'AI's final frontier.' In contrast, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), under Eric Sheridan, has a more modest target of $205, representing a 28% upside. Sheridan's team views SpaceX as 'well-positioned' to expand in space, connectivity, and AI.
Other analysts have weighed in with varying forecasts. RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage with an outperform rating and a $225 target, noting that 'Starship is the flywheel that powers SpaceX's ambitions.' Wedbush set a $190 target, using a sum-of-the-parts approach that places less weight on short-term results. The wide range of targets underscores the uncertainty surrounding the company's valuation, especially as it transitions from a private to a public entity.
The Nasdaq-100 inclusion is tracked by over 200 products holding more than $800 billion globally, according to Nasdaq Inc (NASDAQ:NDAQ). Funds tied to the index, including the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) and QQQM, benchmark over $587 billion. However, SpaceX's path to the index has been unusual. On Monday, shares slipped 1% even as the S&P 500 rose 0.72%, the Nasdaq gained 1.12%, and the Dow added 0.29%.
SpaceX remains excluded from the S&P 500, as S&P Global Inc (NYSE:SPGI) has not adjusted its rules for the company. The index provider maintained its standards on financial viability, seasoning, and investable-weight limits, noting it won't make exceptions for high market value. Reuters reported that SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, despite a 33% revenue jump to $18.67 billion.
Morningstar values SpaceX at around $780 billion, significantly below the current $2.1 trillion market capitalization. This disconnect between technical buying pressure and fundamental valuation leaves the stock in a precarious position, caught between passive inflows and questions about its long-term worth.
