NEW YORK, July 22, 2026, 07:05 EDT — U.S. cash equity markets remained closed while premarket trading continued. According to an initial assessment by S3 Partners, 206 million shares are sold short, making up 32% of the available float.
The August 6 lockup expiration may release 911.5 million shares for trading, which could lower the short ratio to around 13% if positions remain unchanged. Shares ended Tuesday at $123.54, marking an 8.5% drop from their IPO level. Starship launches Thursday, and Q2 earnings are due August 4.
SpaceX short interest appears notably high. However, the denominator is set to change soon. The estimated proportion may drop from 32% to about 13% following August 6. This shift would occur without any short covering, instead resulting only from a possible increase in available tradable shares.
On that day, as many as 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors will be unlocked. This comes after SpaceX published its inaugural public earnings report on August 4. The total represents approximately 142% of the present implied float. By the end of trading on Tuesday, the projected unlock held a value of roughly $112.6 billion. The short position estimate stood at $25.4 billion. This makes the unlock 4.4 times greater.
Estimates of short interest vary, ranging from 17% to 32%. The difference seems related to timing and varying definitions of float. According to FINRA, the most recent settled number was 111 million shares as of June 30, while S3 offered a newer preliminary estimate of 206 million. A separate batch of 455.8 million shares is subject to a release tied to a minimum price. SpaceX would need to maintain trading at or above $175.50 for five designated sessions. This price point is 42% above the close recorded on Tuesday. If this set also met eligibility, the short ratio—currently unchanged—would near 10%.
Tight supply could pose squeeze risk ahead of August 6. According to EquiLend, the borrowed volume rose to 211.6 million shares as of July 10. Utilization surpassed 77%, with under 20% of available inventory left unused. SpaceX stock finished Tuesday at $123.54, up 3.1%, halting a seven-day losing streak. The shares are still trading 8.5% under the $135 IPO price and sit 45% off the intraday high reached in June.
Elon Musk, CEO, directly addressed the negative bets. “The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” he posted on X. Macquarie Group analyst Paul Golding described the drop as a “compelling entry point.” He maintained his target at $250, which would represent an increase of more than 100% from Tuesday’s close.
Starship Flight 13 is set as the next scheduled operational event on Thursday. The 90-minute launch window begins at 6:45 p.m. EDT. The flight aims to deploy 20 Starlink V3 test satellites and includes a planned in-space engine relight. SpaceX is set to announce its second-quarter results after markets close on August 4. Company executives will host a webcast at 4:30 p.m. EDT. Shares will be released two full trading days after the announcement.
Pentagon discussions over AI-computing, as reported, may open a new stream of revenue. These talks remain preliminary, with the most recent reporting noting no finalized deal. As a result, investors should not treat that possible revenue as secured or under contract. Historical IPO results suggest prudence is warranted. Reuters reviewed 50 major U.S. IPOs since 2010. Shares that dropped under their offer price soon after listing had a median increase of 61%. In comparison, those remaining above the offer price achieved a 112% median gain.
The short-term trade divides into two phases. Limited availability increases the risk of a squeeze until August 6. After that, possible fresh supply could take precedence. Risks: A sharp rally could be triggered by achieving Starship milestones, robust earnings, or short covering. Conversely, continued declines may follow significant insider sales, disappointing performance, or another Starship launch failure.
