T1 Energy Inc. (NYSE:TE) saw its shares close at $8.65 on Monday, up 1.0% on the day, but the focus remains squarely on the looming expiration of its warrants. The stock traded in a range of $8.37 to $9.295 during the session, yet it still sits $2.85 below the $11.50 exercise price for T1 warrants, which are set to expire this Thursday, July 9.
The gap to the strike price is significant: shares would need to rally 32.9% from current levels to reach the exercise threshold before the warrants lapse. According to a June 29 filing, T1 had approximately 14.8 million public warrants and 9.8 million private warrants outstanding as of March 31. The public warrants will cease trading on the New York Stock Exchange before the market opens on July 9, while the common stock continues to trade under the ticker TE.
The numbers underscore the stakes. If all 24.6 million warrants were exercised for cash, T1 would net roughly $282.9 million and issue new shares equivalent to about 8.8% of the 279.0 million shares outstanding as of the end of March. At Monday's closing price, however, exercising for cash is more expensive than buying shares in the open market, making it likely that many warrants will expire worthless.
The expiration removes a significant overhang on the stock, but also eliminates a potential source of capital as T1 seeks funding for its G2_Austin solar cell factory. In May, the company indicated that Phase 1 of the project still required about $225 million in funding after closing a convertible note deal in April. T1 reported $46.4 million in unrestricted cash at the end of March, highlighting the need for additional financing.
Despite the warrant overhang, T1 has maintained its operational targets. The company reiterated its 2026 production guidance for G1_Dallas, aiming for 3.1 GW to 4.2 GW of output, and said it is on track to achieve the high end of that range. Phase 1 of G2_Austin is expected to add another 2.1 GW of annual capacity, with cell production targeted to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026.
CEO Dan Barcelo has emphasized the company's commitment to securing a comprehensive financing package for G2_Austin. In June, after Intertek CEA issued a bankability review for G1_Dallas, Barcelo described the rating as a "meaningful independent confirmation" of T1's progress in Texas.
In a separate development, six directors received restricted stock unit (RSU) grants on July 2, as disclosed in filings posted July 6. The grants totaled 146,850 RSUs, valued at approximately $1.3 million based on Monday's closing price. Jessica Wirth Strine, Balazs Peter Matrai, David J. Manners, Daniel Steingart, and W. Richard Anderson each received 22,695 RSUs, while Robert O. Hammond was granted 33,375 RSUs. The shares vest on the earlier of the first anniversary of the grant or T1's 2027 annual meeting.
While the director grants are modest compared to the warrant issue, they signal board-level confidence. The warrants, however, could potentially create nearly 170 times more shares than the RSUs if exercised, underscoring the importance of the upcoming expiry.
T1 also received a technical boost from index rebalancing. S&P Capital IQ data indicated that T1 joined Russell growth indexes last week, including the Russell 2000 Growth and Russell 2500 Growth, while exiting several value indexes. This could attract additional institutional interest.
Looking beyond solar modules, T1 agreed in June to acquire KORE Power for an enterprise value of approximately $32 million. The company expects the deal to contribute positive EBITDA in 2026 and add $15 million to $20 million in EBITDA in 2027. KORE Power CEO Jay Bellows said the combined entity would offer a "one-stop solution" across generation, storage, and operations.
As the warrant expiry approaches, all eyes will be on whether T1 shares can close the gap to $11.50. Even if the warrants lapse, the company's focus on funding G2_Austin and executing on its production targets will remain central to its story.
