Shares of Finnish discount retailer Tokmanni Group Oyj experienced a significant decline of around 12% on Friday, March 6, 2026, following the release of its financial guidance for 2026, which fell short of market expectations. The company projected comparable earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in a range of 85 million to 105 million euros for the full year 2026. Concurrently, it forecast revenue between 1.78 billion and 1.86 billion euros.
The subdued outlook underscores the ongoing challenges within the group, particularly related to the performance of its Swedish subsidiary, Dollarstore. Investors had been anticipating clearer signals that the Swedish chain's operations would cease to be a drag on the broader company's earnings after a difficult 2025. The latest guidance suggests the turnaround is still a work in progress, casting doubt on the near-term profitability trajectory.
Financial results for 2025 revealed a 15% decline in comparable EBIT to 84.8 million euros. This drop occurred despite a 3.2% increase in annual revenue, which reached 1.728 billion euros. The fourth quarter presented a mixed picture: revenue grew 2.8% year-over-year to 510.8 million euros, while comparable EBIT saw a modest increase to 48.2 million euros. However, these figures disappointed analysts, missing the Bloomberg consensus estimates of 519.3 million euros in revenue and 50.1 million euros in adjusted operating profit for the quarter.
Chief Executive Mika Rautiainen highlighted that Tokmanni maintained stable margins in its core Finnish market through stringent cost control and gross-margin discipline. This effort succeeded even as consumer sentiment remained cautious during the holiday season and competitors expanded their physical store presence in overlapping regions. The company noted that the average spend per shopping trip in Finland decreased during the quarter.
The situation in Sweden proved more complex. Dollarstore reported a 12.2% surge in fourth-quarter revenue when measured in euros, a gain primarily driven by network expansion. However, its comparable EBIT fell to 8.3 million euros from 11.4 million euros in the prior-year period. "Dollarstore is clearly a turnaround company," stated Rautiainen. He added that the group intends to continue investing in marketing, product assortment, supply chain, and information technology to foster stronger growth and improved margins at the subsidiary.
On a positive note, management pointed to early benefits from the Nordic sourcing and buying group, established in September. The initiative already manages approximately 5,900 shared products, leading to greater purchasing volumes and lower costs. Tokmanni expects the harmonization of systems and supply chains to continue delivering benefits throughout 2026.
The company's board proposed a maximum dividend of 0.34 euros per share for 2025, to be distributed in two installments. The first tranche of 0.17 euros will be paid out, with the timing of the second 0.17-euro payment to be determined by the board later this year. Operating cash flow showed strong improvement, climbing to 139.5 million euros from 89.1 million euros. However, the company's leverage ratio, measured as net debt to comparable EBITDA including lease liabilities, finished the year at 4.06 times.
Tokmanni operates more than 390 stores across Finland, Sweden, and Denmark. It holds exclusive rights to the SPAR brand and its products in Finland, a privilege secured in 2025. The Nordic discount retail sector remains intensely competitive. Recent developments include rival Rusta's announcement of plans to open 13 new stores in spring 2026, and Europris reporting robust fourth-quarter sales in Norway in January, with a continued strategic focus on the Swedish market.
Analysts have identified clear risks. Tokmanni itself cited soft consumer confidence in Finland. Inderes analyst Arttu Heikura emphasized that the major unknown for 2026 is the speed at which the Swedish business can recover and effectively translate new strategic concepts into tangible sales growth. He warned that if the pace lags, achieving the higher end of the company's forecasts could become difficult.
The company is navigating this challenging period while also preparing for a leadership transition. Tokmanni announced in July 2025 that Sampo Päällysaho is scheduled to succeed Mika Rautiainen as chief executive, with the handover to occur no later than July 6, 2026.