The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and its related markets are closed on Monday, February 16, 2026, for the Family Day holiday. Trading activity is scheduled to resume on Tuesday, February 17. This market pause coincides with other regional holidays, including the Lunar New Year in parts of Asia and Presidents' Day in the United States, contributing to thin global trading volumes.
Friday's Rally and Market Context
When markets last traded, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed Friday with a significant gain of 608.43 points, or 1.9%, finishing at 33,073.71. This rally was primarily fueled by softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which revived investor expectations for potential interest rate cuts later in the year. The materials sector surged 4.4%, while energy advanced 1.8%. Concurrently, the yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond touched a two-month low of 3.234%.
"If inflation continues to trend lower in the coming months, it makes a strong case for a rate cut as early as June," commented Ian Chong, a portfolio manager at First Avenue Investment Counsel Inc. The TSX's heavy weighting in commodities and rate-sensitive sectors makes it particularly reactive to such macroeconomic shifts.
Commodities in Focus During Thin Trade
With cash equity sessions halted, investor attention has turned to offshore commodity price signals. Oil markets showed little change on Monday as participants assessed geopolitical risks ahead of scheduled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. Brent crude futures edged down 3 cents to $67.72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $62.86. There will be no formal WTI settlement price on Monday due to the U.S. holiday.
Analysts warned that the calm trading could be deceptive. "This is likely to be the calm before the storm," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet noted that the thin holiday liquidity could lead to "erratic" price action.
Gold prices retreated slightly in the low-volume environment, a move closely watched by TSX-listed mining companies. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $5,007.70 per ounce. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo described bullion as "range-trading around $5,000/oz" under current conditions. Meanwhile, OANDA's Zain Vawda indicated he had adjusted his medium-term price target following the metal's recent surge.
Corporate Earnings Highlights
Several major Canadian companies reported quarterly results ahead of the market closure, setting the stage for Tuesday's reopening.
TC Energy (TRP) reported fourth-quarter profit that exceeded analyst estimates, driven by record natural gas flows. The pipeline giant also raised its quarterly dividend by 3.2% to C$0.8775 per share. Company executives projected that North American natural gas demand could grow by 45 billion cubic feet per day between 2025 and 2035, with analysts from Jefferies highlighting the pace of final investment decisions as a critical variable.
Enbridge (ENB) also topped profit expectations and emphasized a large project backlog, particularly targeting power demand linked to data centers and artificial intelligence workloads. CEO Greg Ebel stated the company is advancing "over 50" data center opportunities. UBS analyst Manav Gupta noted Enbridge "continues to prioritize balance sheet strength." The company's shares rose nearly 3% on Friday to close at an all-time high of C$72.57.
Magna International (MGA) provided an optimistic full-year forecast, projecting adjusted earnings per share between $6.25 and $7.25, above the average analyst estimate of $5.99. The automotive supplier cited cost-cutting measures and steady demand for parts related to gasoline and hybrid vehicles. However, the company also flagged a $591 million non-cash impairment charge in its electronics unit and noted it could not yet estimate potential exposure related to rearview camera recall discussions with Ford Motor Company.
Key Macroeconomic Data on Deck
The immediate focus for Tuesday's market reopening will be a batch of crucial economic data. Statistics Canada has rescheduled the release of its January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from Monday to Tuesday, February 17. The agency also outlined methodological changes to its core inflation measures—CPI-median and CPI-trim—which strip out extreme price movements, effective with the January data.
Beyond inflation, the week's data calendar includes wholesale trade and international securities transactions on Tuesday, followed by building construction and monthly credit aggregates on Wednesday, and retail trade figures on Friday.
The market setup presents potential volatility. A surprise in the inflation data could swiftly reverse the recent decline in bond yields, putting pressure on the rate-sensitive sectors that led Friday's advance. Conversely, a sharp move in oil prices driven by geopolitical developments could boost energy shares, even as it tightens financial conditions elsewhere. The prevailing thin liquidity adds a layer of risk, as it may exaggerate price moves that could later unwind when full market participation returns.
Looking Beyond the Reopening
Investors in TSX energy names will also be looking further ahead to a key OPEC+ decision point. According to Reuters, eight member producers are scheduled to meet on March 1 to discuss whether to resume output increases starting in April. This decision will have significant implications for global oil supply and pricing.
The Canadian dollar, which traded in choppy conditions on Friday, eased 0.1% to 1.3620 per U.S. dollar. Despite the daily dip, the loonie held onto a weekly gain, supported by the cooling U.S. inflation data.
