TUI AG (ETR:TUI1) tightened its fiscal 2026 operating profit forecast on Tuesday, but the market gave a muted response, with the travel group’s shares slipping 0.95% in Frankfurt. The stock closed at €6.466, down from Monday’s €6.528 close, in delayed Xetra trading.
The Hanover-based company now expects underlying EBIT of €1.2 billion to €1.3 billion at constant currencies, narrowing its previous range of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion. The midpoint remains unchanged at €1.25 billion, but that figure is still 11.5% below last year’s result of €1.413 billion. Revenue guidance remains suspended.
Booking Trends Show Improvement
Summer booked revenue was 5% lower, a one-point improvement from the August update. Revenue booked during the past four weeks rose 2%, suggesting late bookings are picking up. However, own-risk capacity was down 5%.
Winter booked revenue remained 7% lower, with Britain trailing by 9% and Germany down 4%. The latest four-week comparison improved to a 1% decline.
In the hotels segment, bed nights increased 1% in the fourth quarter, while the average daily rate rose 4%. Occupancy lost two percentage points. Cruise passenger days jumped 12% as daily rates gained 2%, with occupancy holding steady. TUI’s fleet reached 19 ships after the addition of Mein Schiff Flow, which brought 4,000 berths.
Analysts Remain Divided
Analyst targets published Tuesday ranged from €7.00 to €12.20, a wide spread around the same operating update. JPMorgan maintained a Buy rating with a €12.20 target, implying 88.7% upside. Jefferies held a Neutral rating with a €7.00 target, while Bernstein also remained Neutral with an €8.60 target.
The broader consensus is “outperform” across 13 analysts, according to MarketScreener. Its €9.958 average target implies 54% upside from Tuesday’s quoted price. Targets are opinions, not forecasts.
Risks and the December Test
Risks remain: weaker winter demand could force discounts just as new cruise capacity raises fixed costs, eroding the hotel-and-cruise buffer behind the profit range. The December 9 full-year results will test whether recent booking gains protected the midpoint and funded the enlarged fleet.
With the stock trading well below its 52-week high and analysts split, TUI’s next earnings release will be a critical moment for investors seeking clarity on the company’s turnaround trajectory.