XRP hovered near $1.37 on Tuesday, down 1.1% over the past 24 hours, as a fresh wave of analyst forecasts deepened the divide between bulls and skeptics. The token's market capitalization stood at approximately $84.5 billion, with daily trading volume around $1.8 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. CoinGecko data showed XRP remains about 62.6% below its all-time high.
The contrasting outlooks were highlighted in recent articles from 24/7 Wall St., The Motley Fool and TipRanks, which placed the debate squarely before investors amid a broader crypto market softening. While one camp envisions a staged path toward $4 and beyond, critics argue that Ripple's own payments strategy could weaken XRP's utility and demand.
Bullish Forecasts from Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered's forecast remains the most prominent bullish anchor. According to 24/7 Wall St., the bank's roadmap projects XRP reaching $2.80 in 2026, $7 in 2027, and $12.60 in 2028. The $4 level is seen as a key repricing zone before any credible run toward $10. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, has argued that "XRP price gains can keep pace with Bitcoin in real terms," citing cross-border payments as the primary use case. This bull case hinges on banks and payment firms adopting XRP for faster transactions, boosting token demand.
Skeptical Views Emerge
Not all analysts share this optimism. The Motley Fool's Johnny Rice modeled a $1,000 XRP investment as worth $3,500 in a bull case at $5 per token, $1,050 in a base case at $1.50, and $175 in a bear case at $0.25. He further projected that XRP could trade below $1 by 2031. TipRanks featured investor Anthony Di Pizio, who warned of "structural issues that will be difficult to overcome." His core argument is that Ripple Payments can function without XRP, as banks may settle in fiat currencies, undermining the link between Ripple's adoption and token demand.
Regulatory Developments and Legal Overhang
The regulatory landscape has also shifted. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the Clarity Act last week, a crypto market-structure bill aimed at defining when tokens are treated as securities, commodities, or other instruments. However, Reuters reported that some Democratic support may not hold on the Senate floor, casting doubt on the bill's passage. Meanwhile, the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple concluded in August 2025 with a $125 million fine and an injunction covering sales of XRP to institutional investors. While the legal overhang has eased, it has not fully dissipated from investor memory.
Market Context and Peer Performance
Broader market conditions have not provided tailwinds. CoinDesk reported Tuesday that bitcoin was little changed around $76,800 and ether barely moved, while most major altcoins weakened after Monday's selloff. XRP futures indicators pointed to sellers in control. The token's performance contrasts with its peers, reflecting the specific challenges it faces.
Key risks include the possibility that the Clarity Act stalls, ETF demand cools, or a risk-off macro environment keeps capital in bitcoin or cash-like instruments rather than rotating into XRP. More damaging for the long run, Ripple could continue to grow its payments network while XRP remains useful but not essential, reducing the token's investment thesis.
For now, XRP is being priced less like a $10 story and more like an asset that still must prove its next step. The $4 target is not the immediate issue; the challenge lies in breaking out of the low-$1 range with buyers beyond loyal retail holders.
