NEW YORK, July 28, 2026 — U.S. stock futures pointed to a mixed open on Tuesday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 under pressure as investor caution over artificial intelligence investment eclipsed the positive impact of falling oil prices. The divergence highlighted a growing shift away from growth stocks, particularly those with heavy exposure to semiconductors.
At 7:04 a.m. ET, Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 1.04%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 0.5%, reflecting a rotation out of tech and into more cyclical sectors. The move extended a pattern seen on Monday, when the Nasdaq-100 cash index closed 0.32% lower, a 1.93 percentage point fade from its initial futures reading. In contrast, the S&P 500 managed a marginal gain of 0.02%, and the Dow rose 0.51%.
Nvidia Leads Tech Decline on OpenAI Funding Reports
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) was the biggest drag on the Nasdaq, falling 5.0% on Monday after The Wall Street Journal reported discussions about potential financing support for OpenAI that could involve around $250 billion. The news stoked concerns about the sustainability of massive capital expenditures in the AI sector. Nvidia shares edged down another 1% in premarket trading on Tuesday.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) bucked the trend, climbing 1.2% on Monday and reclaiming its position as the most valuable U.S. company by market capitalization. The performance gap between Apple and Nvidia widened to 6.2 percentage points. Apple's relative strength underscored a market preference for companies demonstrating capital discipline.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.2% on Monday, now standing 21% below its record high from June 22. Despite the pullback, the index still shows a 63% gain for the year. Other chip-related stocks also weakened: Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) dropped 5.5% in premarket trade, and Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) declined 4.3%.
Oil Price Drop Spurs Rotation, Not Rally
Brent crude oil fell 8% on Monday, trading near $89 per barrel. However, the decline failed to spark a broad market rally. Instead, it prompted sector rotation, with energy stocks suffering. Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) fell 4.1%, and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) slipped 1.4%. The Dow's modest gain was supported by blue-chip strength outside of tech.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Group (SWX:SQN), noted that cash flow concerns are becoming a key focus. A renewed "dive in their free cash flow levels" could bring issuance worries back to the forefront, she said.
Big Tech Earnings and Fed Meeting in Focus
Investors are now turning to a critical week of earnings and central bank policy. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) are scheduled to report results on Wednesday, followed by Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple on Thursday. Analysts expect a focus on capital expenditures, depreciation, and free cash flow, with revenue growth alone unlikely to satisfy the market.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Early Tuesday, traders were pricing in a 35.8% probability of a quarter-point rate increase. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for June is due on Thursday, which could influence the Fed's next moves.
Last week, the Dow slipped 0.4%, the S&P 500 declined 0.6%, and the Nasdaq retreated 2.0%, following a short-lived chip recovery on July 21.
Market Outlook
Risks are balanced on both sides. A lasting ceasefire or easing inflation could spark a rebound in growth stocks. Conversely, disappointing cash-flow projections or an unexpected rate hike could extend the chip market downturn. This week, investors will be assessing the strength of company funding in addition to appetite for AI. Firms able to support growth plans without taking on extra debt or issuing new shares could emerge ahead.
