Ambev S.A. shares edged higher late Friday in São Paulo, bucking a broader market decline, as investors weighed conflicting signals from major analysts about the brewer's ability to sustain its recent rally.
ABEV3 closed at 16.35 reais on the B3 exchange, up from 16.29 reais the previous session, trading within a range of 16.02 to 16.40 reais. The stock's ADR in New York rose about 0.6% to $3.22. The Ibovespa benchmark slipped to near 173,900.
The stock has surged more than 15% since Ambev reported first-quarter earnings on May 5, but the rally is now testing investor confidence. In a notable divergence, BTG Pactual upgraded Ambev to buy for the first time in 13 years, while Goldman Sachs reiterated its sell rating.
BTG analysts Thiago Duarte and Guilherme Guttilla raised their target price to 20 reais from 17 reais, citing renewed pricing power. They believe Ambev's broad portfolio, spanning core to premium beers, gives it more flexibility to raise prices and capture revenue share in the competitive Brazilian market, particularly against Heineken's narrower offering.
Goldman Sachs, however, warned that price hike potential appears limited over the next few quarters. The bank cited slowing beer inflation, soft demand, and April beer volumes down about 5% year-on-year according to Scanntech data. Goldman cautioned that if Brazilian consumer spending weakens or beer demand falters, passing on cost increases could become difficult.
Ambev's first-quarter results showed organic net revenue up 8.1% year-on-year, with consolidated volumes essentially flat at +0.1%. Normalized EBITDA rose 10.1%, and CEO Carlos Lisboa described the quarter as a solid start to 2026.
On the shareholder return front, Ambev's board approved a second tranche of interest on capital (IOC) of 0.0755 real per share, payable July 6. An additional IOC distribution of 0.0449 real per share is scheduled for payout by December 31. IOC is a Brazilian mechanism for returning cash to shareholders with different tax treatment than dividends.
Cost pressures remain a watchpoint. Ambev maintained its outlook for Brazil Beer cash COGS per hectoliter (excluding marketplace products) to rise 4.5% to 7.5% this year.
The next B3 market closure is for Corpus Christi on June 4, when equity and listed derivatives trading will pause.
