As Anthropic gears up for its highly anticipated initial public offering, the proposed price range has thrown a spotlight on the value of a stake once held by the now-defunct FTX exchange. According to calculations based on public records, the spread between the low and high ends of the offering range translates to a $3.6 billion difference in the implied worth of that holding.
The IPO, slated to price at $70 to $78 per share, would value the former FTX position—now under the control of the FTX bankruptcy estate—at between $31.18 billion and $34.74 billion. This valuation range is based on a reconstructed holding of 445.39 million equivalent common shares, derived from the Series B preferred shares that FTX originally purchased.
Reuters reported on November 13 that IPO orders have already reached six times the number of shares available, though these indications remain provisional. The overwhelming demand underscores the market's enthusiasm for Anthropic, which has applied to list on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “ANT.”
From Bankruptcy Estate to Windfall
The valuation exercise begins with the 44,539,240 Series B preferred shares that FTX held at the time of its collapse. Anthropic’s November 10 prospectus discloses a stock split and a 10:1 conversion ratio for Series B shares, resulting in 445,392,400 equivalent common shares. Each $1 change in the IPO price would alter the value of this holding by approximately $445.4 million.
The bankruptcy estate sold two blocks of these shares in 2024. The first transaction, which closed on April 8, involved 29,465,891 shares for approximately $884.1 million. The second block, detailed in a May 31 sale notice, comprised 15,073,349 shares for $452.3 million. Combined, the estate realized about $1.336 billion from these sales.
This amount now appears minuscule compared to the potential value of the remaining stake. The $8 difference between the IPO range’s endpoints is worth $3.563 billion across the reconstructed holding, roughly 2.67 times the total consideration from the earlier sales.
Valuation Methodology and Implications
The calculation assumes that Series B shares convert into non-voting Class N common stock, which carries economic rights equivalent to the publicly offered Class A shares. However, it does not account for potential transfer restrictions or market impact from selling such a large block.
Keeping the share count constant avoids the distortion of applying an old ownership percentage to today’s company valuation, as later financing rounds have diluted FTX’s stake. The figures exclude taxes, transaction costs, and any discount for illiquidity.
Anthropic’s prospectus reveals third-quarter revenue of $17 billion and a net loss of $23.3 billion, with $21.9 billion of that loss attributed to a non-cash financing valuation charge. This separates operational scale from accounting losses, providing a clearer picture for investors evaluating the proposed price.
What’s Next
The offering is expected to price on November 18, with trading to commence on November 19, subject to regulatory clearance. The final price will determine the actual valuation of the former FTX stake. While the range suggests a significant windfall for creditors, the outcome remains provisional until the offering closes.
Market participants will be watching closely, as the IPO could set a benchmark for AI company valuations. The oversubscription indicates strong institutional interest, but final allocations and pricing will be crucial.
