Bitcoin relinquished its hold on the $70,000 threshold during weekend trading, settling lower as market participants brace for a shortened trading week punctuated by critical Federal Reserve communications and inflation data. The leading cryptocurrency declined 0.9% to $69,029 by Sunday's close, after oscillating between a session high of $70,908 and a low of $68,805. Ether, the native token of the Ethereum network, experienced a steeper retreat, falling 3.4% to $2,006.
Holiday Pause for U.S. Crypto Markets
U.S. financial markets are observing the Presidents Day holiday on Monday, February 16, 2026, resulting in a suspension of trading for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and crypto-related equities. Full trading activity for these U.S.-listed products will not resume until Tuesday, February 17. This calendar-induced pause comes at a sensitive juncture, following a week of notable volatility in fund flows for the newly approved spot bitcoin ETFs.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows Exhibit Sharp Swings
Data from Farside Investors reveals the erratic nature of recent capital movements into and out of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. Net inflows registered a modest $15.1 million on Thursday, February 13. This figure, however, followed a substantial single-day outflow of $410.2 million on Wednesday, February 12, highlighting the fragile and sentiment-driven nature of current investor appetite. Market observers are closely monitoring whether these flows will stabilize or see renewed momentum when trading resumes post-holiday.
Macroeconomic Backdrop and Fed Policy in Focus
The cryptocurrency market continues to demonstrate correlation with broader risk assets, particularly as traders adjust expectations for the timing and magnitude of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Recent inflation data provided a mixed signal. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in January, a figure that came in lighter than economist forecasts. On an annual basis, CPI increased 2.4%.
"For the Fed, this probably doesn't change much in the near term," cautioned James McCann, senior economist at Edward Jones, tempering expectations for an accelerated pace of monetary easing. Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes, offered a more optimistic take, describing the inflation print as "better than expected" and suggesting it supports the narrative for eventual rate reductions.
Key Data and Fed Minutes on the Docket
The holiday-shortened week presents several high-impact events for traders to digest. On Wednesday, February 18, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its most recent policy meeting, offering deeper insight into the central bank's deliberations. The week culminates on Friday, February 20, with the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside the initial estimate for fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Analyst Warnings and Market Structure
Despite the prevailing focus on near-term catalysts, some analysts warn of deeper structural risks. Strategists at Ned Davis Research have cautioned clients that bitcoin could potentially decline to the $31,000 level if market conditions deteriorate into another prolonged "crypto winter." They noted a historical trend, however, stating, "Notice the winters/major bears are getting slightly less severe over time in terms of percent decline and we think that will continue."
Wall Street concluded the previous week with mixed performance, while Treasury yields edged lower as the market parsed the latest inflation figures. The U.S. dollar index remained largely unchanged. As trading activity resumes Tuesday, the immediate trajectory for bitcoin will likely hinge on the direction of spot ETF flows and any fresh cues on monetary policy emanating from the week's economic calendar.
