Banco Bradesco's preferred shares (BVMF:BBDC4) experienced a decline on Monday, largely attributed to the stock trading ex-rights for a net shareholder payout. The stock settled at R$17.85, reflecting a 0.69% drop on an adjusted basis, while the broader Ibovespa index slipped 0.95% to 172,422.28.
The raw price movement from Friday's close of R$18.26 to Monday's R$17.85 represented a 2.25% decline. However, after accounting for the R$0.286188324 net preferred-share payment, the adjusted base price stood at R$17.97. The clean intraday move from that level to R$17.85 was just 0.69%, closely matching the adjusted figures shown on financial platforms like Google Finance.
The net payout represented about 69.8% of the R$0.41 raw gap, underscoring that the ex-rights adjustment was the primary driver of the price change, rather than market sentiment or company-specific news.
Bradesco's board had approved R$3.5 billion in interim interest on shareholders' equity (JCP). The gross amount per preferred share was R$0.346894939, with the net figure representing the after-tax distribution. Investors on record as of July 3 were eligible, with the ex-rights date set for July 6 and payment scheduled for January 29, 2027.
The combined weighting of Bradesco's preferred and common shares in the Ibovespa portfolio as of July 6 was 4.740%—with BBDC4 at 3.793% and BBDC3 at 0.947%. Using adjusted numbers, the 0.69% drop in BBDC4 and a 0.70% decline in BBDC3 together contributed approximately 57 points to the Ibovespa's 1,648-point drop, accounting for roughly 3% of the index's decline.
Despite the session's weakness, analyst forecasts continue to point to significant upside. Street targets suggest potential gains of 27%–28% from the current price, with average price targets around R$22.70–R$22.83. However, these projections remain contingent on net interest income (NII) growth and credit cost trends.
During the May 7 earnings call, Bradesco executive Marcelo Noronha emphasized that NII would be the key driver for 2026 earnings. Bank of America analyst Mario Pierry described the quarter as a "very predictable result," noting that the bank's capital position had improved considerably. Noronha refrained from committing to a specific ROE target, stating, "I don't promise ROE," when asked about sustaining an 18% return on equity.
Bradesco reported first-quarter recurring net income of R$6.8 billion, a 16.1% year-over-year increase. Revenue rose 14%, and ROE stood at 15.8%. Management expressed cautious optimism on some credit segments while continuing to expand lending with additional guarantees. The next earnings report is expected on July 29, with analysts forecasting EPS of R$0.65 and revenue of R$36.58 billion.
