São Paulo, July 12, 2026 – Banco Bradesco S.A. (BVMF:BBDC4) preferred shares delivered a notable performance last week, with investors who held through Friday seeing a nominal gross return of approximately 5.3%. This figure combines the stock's price appreciation with the interest on shareholders' equity (JCP) payout, outpacing the 3.4% close-to-close price gain. The stock ended at R$18.86 on July 10, up from R$18.24 on July 3.
Holders of record as of July 3 received R$0.346894939 per share in JCP, Bradesco's cash return to shareholders. After a 17.5% withholding tax, the net JCP was R$0.286188324 per share, bringing the net total return to nearly 5.0%. The payment is scheduled for January 29, 2027. The stock went ex-right on Monday, July 6, meaning buyers after that date are not eligible for the JCP. Despite this, Bradesco closed above its pre-ex price, reflecting strong market sentiment.
Friday's rally was particularly robust, with shares jumping 4.78% on heavy trading volume of 48.06 million shares, 57% above the 30.52 million average. The move was fueled by Brazil's lower-than-expected inflation print for June. The IPCA consumer-price index rose just 0.16% in June, easing from a 0.58% increase in May, with annual inflation slowing to 4.64%. Traders interpreted this as opening more room for a Selic rate cut, boosting bank stocks across the board.
Bradesco's price-only gain of 3.4% edged ahead of Itaú Unibanco preferred shares (BVMF:ITUB4) at 3.3% and Banco do Brasil common shares (BVMF:BBAS3) at 3.2%. When the gross JCP is included, Bradesco's total return of 5.3% gives it roughly a two-point lead over peers. The Ibovespa benchmark index also climbed 2.2% over the same period. Friday's leaderboard showed coordinated gains: Banco Santander (Brasil) units (BVMF:SANB11) rose 5.22%, Itaú added 4.02%, and Banco do Brasil gained 2.90%, as the Ibovespa advanced 2.97%.
The inflation data has shifted expectations for monetary policy. Gabriel Pestana, senior economist at Genial Investimentos, described the June inflation number as “relevant and relatively unusual,” increasing the likelihood that the Selic policy rate will close 2026 below 14%. However, analysts caution that the rate cut bets could unwind quickly. Claudia Moreno at C6 Bank warned of risks from a tight labor market and a weaker real, which could keep second-half inflation sticky. André Braz at FGV Ibre pointed to El Niño as a potential threat to power and food prices.
Bradesco's underlying credit challenges remain. Recurring net income for the first quarter rose 16.1% year-over-year to R$6.81 billion, but loan-loss provisions climbed 26.5% to R$9.67 billion. Loans overdue by more than 90 days stood at 4.2%. The bank's quiet period ahead of second-quarter earnings begins July 22, with results scheduled for August 5 and a video call on August 6. No Bradesco-specific events are planned this week, but the central bank will release May IBC-Br activity data on Friday, July 17.
While the 5.3% gross return is attractive, investors should note that it is nominal and payment is deferred until early 2027. The combination of lower inflation, potential rate cuts, and bank earnings could sustain momentum, but risks from inflation and credit costs remain. The market will be watching for any reversal in rate expectations that could impact bank shares and Bradesco's provision expenses.
