First Quantum Minerals Ltd. saw its shares jump 7.77% to C$39.58 in Toronto trading by midday Monday, as investors cheered Panama's decision to allow the company to process and export copper stockpiles from the idled Cobre Panama mine. The stock touched an intraday high of C$39.74, though it remains below its 52-week peak of C$45.17.
The rally was fueled by a broader uptick in copper prices, with three-month delivery copper on the London Metal Exchange rising 0.9% to $13,624.32 per ton. Traders attributed the gains to a softer U.S. dollar and declining oil prices, which made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers. The weaker greenback also supported other base metals, lifting mining stocks across the board.
Canada's main stock index, the S&P/TSX Composite, hit a new record high, driven by the mining sector. Beyond First Quantum, other copper producers also advanced: Capstone Copper Corp. climbed 7.1%, and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. added 4.48%, signaling broad-based demand for the red metal used extensively in wiring and power grids.
Panama's Green Light for Stockpile Processing
The key catalyst for First Quantum was Panama's authorization in April to remove, process, and export the ore stockpiled at Cobre Panama, one of the world's largest open-pit copper mines. The company estimates the stockpile contains approximately 70,000 tons of recoverable copper. Both First Quantum and Panamanian officials have emphasized that this does not constitute a restart of the mine, which has been closed since 2023 following widespread protests over environmental and fiscal concerns.
Investors are closely watching the distinction. According to Reuters, analysts at Goldman Sachs view the stockpile processing and an independent environmental audit as potential stepping stones toward broader negotiations on the mine's future. First Quantum has stated it expects to begin shipping copper from the stockpiles before the end of the second quarter and is in the process of hiring about 1,000 workers for the effort. CEO Tristan Pascall reiterated the company's goal of reaching a "mutually beneficial resolution for the mine."
Production Outlook and Cost Pressures
In its latest guidance, First Quantum raised its 2026 copper production forecast to between 405,000 and 475,000 tonnes, up from the prior range of 375,000 to 435,000 tonnes, citing the Cobre Panama stockpile plan. However, the company also increased its C1 cash-cost guidance to $2.15-$2.40 per pound, reflecting higher direct mining and processing costs.
Costs remain a significant concern. First Quantum reported a first-quarter net loss attributable to shareholders of $196 million, or 24 cents per share. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) took a $144 million hit from losses on sales-hedge contracts designed to lock in prices. BMO analyst Matt Murphy flagged that cost issues could cloud the near-term outlook, even as volume trends remain positive. "Cost concerns may weigh on the near-term outlook, but the volume outlook remains positive," Murphy told Mining.com.
Market Context and Risks
While copper's rally has provided a tailwind, the bounce may have limits. Panama's authorization only covers stockpile processing, not full mining operations, and rising fuel and currency costs could add approximately $0.25 per pound if sustained. If copper prices reverse, investors could refocus on First Quantum's losses, hedging losses, and lingering political risks surrounding Cobre Panama.
Nonetheless, Monday's surge underscores the market's optimism that the stockpile processing could pave the way for a broader resolution, potentially unlocking significant value from one of the world's largest copper assets. For now, First Quantum's shares are riding the wave of higher copper prices and a clear catalyst, but the road ahead remains uncertain amid cost pressures and geopolitical hurdles.
