Financial markets on March 12, 2026, presented a starkly divergent picture, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggering sharp sell-offs in Asian equities, while other regions and asset classes showed resilience or even strength. The day's events underscored the complex interplay of conflict, trade, and sector-specific fundamentals driving global capital flows.
Indian Markets Plunge on Oil Spike and Trade Fears
Indian equity markets opened sharply lower, with the benchmark Nifty50 index falling below the 23,600 level and the BSE Sensex dropping over 900 points in early trading. The sell-off was primarily driven by a surge in Brent crude oil prices, which breached the $100 per barrel mark following reports of Iranian explosive-laden boats striking fuel-oil tankers, disrupting supply lines and intensifying the ongoing US-Iran conflict. This sharp rise in oil prices raised immediate concerns over inflation and India's substantial import costs.
Adding further pressure, the United States launched fresh unfair-trade investigations targeting 16 countries, including India. This move revived market fears of renewed tariff actions reminiscent of policies from the former Trump administration. Foreign portfolio investors were net sellers, offloading shares worth approximately Rs 6,267 crore, which outpaced domestic institutional buying of about Rs 4,966 crore. All major sector indices opened in negative territory, with small- and mid-cap stocks also declining over 1%. Analysts warned that continued geopolitical instability and volatile crude prices would likely sustain market uncertainty in the near term.
SGX Group Reports Robust Trading Activity
In contrast to the turmoil in India, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Group reported exceptionally strong performance for February 2026. The securities daily average value (SDAV) surged 45% year-on-year to S$2.1 billion, marking the highest level since 2020. Total securities turnover for the month increased 30% to S$38.5 billion. The Straits Times Index (STI) reached a record high of 5,041, buoyed by strength in the real estate and industrial sectors.
A notable highlight was the 135% surge in small- and mid-cap stock turnover, indicating robust institutional interest. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) turnover spiked an impressive 172%, driven by net inflows of S$643 million and strong participation from Supplementary Retirement Scheme holders. Derivatives markets also exhibited strength, with futures volumes and notional values reaching new records, particularly in SGX MSCI Singapore Index and FTSE Taiwan Index products. FX futures hit record daily average volumes, while commodity derivatives maintained growth amid sustained client adoption for hedging purposes.
Commodities: Soybeans Rally on Export Strength
Soybean futures rallied on Wednesday, with contracts gaining between 8 to 15 cents. The move was supported by reports of a 110,100 metric ton private export sale to unknown destinations. Soymeal prices increased by $40 per ton, while soy oil surged between 79 to 159 points. Data showed May soybean exports totaled 1.41 million metric tons (MMT), representing a 43% increase year-on-year, although this was a 20% decline from the previous month. Soybean meal shipments saw a slight decrease compared to both last month and the prior year.
Market participants also noted that threats of 200% tariffs by Indonesia on Chinese goods could potentially impact the palm oil trade, which may benefit soy oil prices as a substitute vegetable oil. Attention now turns to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's export sales report expected on Friday, which may confirm steady demand for the 2023/24 sales period and influence sentiment ahead of the July 4 holiday and an early market close.
ETF and Stock Analysis: Neutral Signals and Valuation Checks
In the funds space, the First Trust Global Risk Managed Income Index ETF (listed in Canada as ETP:CA) maintained a neutral rating across near-, mid-, and long-term periods as of March 12. AI-generated trading signals suggested a potential long position entry near $18.45 with a target of $18.62 and a stop loss at $18.36. Conversely, for short positions, the signals recommended entering near $18.62, targeting $18.45 with a stop loss at $18.71, reflecting a market with no clear directional bias.
HSBC Holdings: Assessing Value After a Rally
Shares of global banking giant HSBC Holdings have surged nearly 58% over the past year, though they recently experienced a pullback of 1.4% over the last week and 3.5% over the past month. This performance has raised questions about current valuation amid shifting global banking regulations, interest rates, and capital return policies. A valuation analysis scores HSBC 2 out of 6, indicating mixed signals. An Excess Returns model, which factors in future earnings and book value, estimates an intrinsic value of £20.69 per share. This suggests a potential 38.5% discount to current prices, pointing to undervaluation despite the recent rally. The model evaluates profits that exceed required shareholder returns over time, hinting at a fundamental opportunity.
Rithm Capital: Undervalued After a Drop?
Rithm Capital's stock closed at $9.87, down 7.3% over the past 30 days and 5.7% over one year. However, longer-term performance remains strong, showing a 64.6% return over three years. Valuation models suggest the stock is significantly undervalued. The Excess Returns model indicates an intrinsic value of $35.51 per share, implying a substantial 72.2% undervaluation at current levels. Analysts' estimates contribute to a weighted Return on Equity of 17.14%. The stock's Price-to-Earnings ratio provides further insight into market perceptions of growth and risk for this income-focused financial entity. Investors are currently reevaluating Rithm's exposure amid ongoing volatility in the credit and real estate sectors.
Overall, the trading day highlighted a fragmented global market landscape where regional geopolitical risks and sector-specific dynamics are creating distinct winners and losers, demanding a nuanced approach from investors navigating cross-currents in oil, trade, financials, and commodities.
