Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) saw its stock jump approximately 6.5% by midday Thursday, reaching $241.68 and lifting its market capitalization to roughly $44.8 billion. The rally was fueled by chatter surrounding a leaked Best Buy affiliate campaign suggesting that Grand Theft Auto VI pre-orders could launch as early as next week.
Neither Take-Two nor its subsidiary Rockstar Games has officially confirmed any pre-order date. The company is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2026 earnings after the market closes on May 21, followed by a conference call at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. This event is widely seen as the next major catalyst for the stock.
According to Rockstar's official website, Grand Theft Auto VI is currently slated for release on November 19, 2026, for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. This timeline places the launch squarely in Take-Two's fiscal 2027, following previous delays that pushed it from earlier targets.
The pre-order rumor originated from a report by Game Informer, which noted that Best Buy affiliate partners received emails about a “GTA 6 Pre Order (Physical Game)” campaign scheduled from May 18 to May 21, with a mention of a 5% earnings or discount. However, the outlet cautioned that an affiliate campaign does not confirm an imminent pre-order launch; it could simply be an error or misprint.
Investing.com reported that Take-Two shares had already been gaining momentum earlier in the day as the pre-order rumors circulated. Bloomberg News and other major media outlets have not independently verified the legitimacy of the Best Buy email. Neither Rockstar nor Take-Two has issued an official statement regarding a pre-order date.
Options market data tracked by Bloomberg suggests that Take-Two shares could swing as much as 9.4% when earnings are released next week. Traders have been pricing in this level of volatility through derivatives, though the options-implied move does not indicate a directional bias.
In its most recent fiscal third quarter, Take-Two reported a 28% increase in net bookings to $1.76 billion. The company also raised its fiscal 2026 net bookings outlook to a range of $6.65 billion to $6.7 billion. CEO Strauss Zelnick has stated that the company anticipates record net bookings in fiscal 2027, with Grand Theft Auto VI serving as a major driver. He described the launch as “highly anticipated” and expects it to “set a new financial baseline” for Take-Two.
Pricing remains a key topic of discussion among analysts. Bank of America’s Omar Dessouky recently argued that Take-Two should price GTA VI above the standard $70 mark. He noted that if GTA VI sticks to $70, it would be difficult for the industry to convince players to pay $80 for other titles. “We think it’s in Take-Two’s self-interest … to raise the price point for the entire industry,” Dessouky wrote.
Prediction markets reflect considerable uncertainty. On Kalshi’s video-games page, the odds of GTA VI launching before 2027 stood at 82%. Polymarket assigned a 69% probability of seeing a new official GTA VI trailer by May 31, and only a 10% chance that the base game’s price would reach $100 or more.
The rally in Take-Two shares stood out from the broader gaming sector. Electronic Arts (EA) gained just 0.2%, while Roblox (RBLX) advanced about 3.4% during the same period. This divergence underscores the extent to which Take-Two’s stock is driven by a single-title catalyst.
Despite the excitement, the risks are clear. A retailer email, no matter how legitimate it appears, is not an official confirmation from Rockstar. Take-Two’s shares have historically experienced sharp swings in response to GTA VI release speculation. CEO Strauss Zelnick has been cautious, telling Bloomberg recently, “We never claim success before it occurs.”
With May 21 now circled on investors’ calendars, the market is eagerly awaiting specifics on pre-orders, pricing, the marketing rollout, and confirmation that Rockstar still aims for the November release window. For now, Thursday’s price action is a bet on the calendar rather than on actual sales numbers.
