Hims & Hers Health Inc. is set to unveil its first-quarter 2025-2026 fiscal results after U.S. markets close on Monday, with analysts and investors laser-focused on the company's evolving weight-loss strategy. The San Francisco-based telehealth firm recently pivoted away from heavily marketed compounded GLP-1 medications, opting instead to offer FDA-approved alternatives from Novo Nordisk—a move that could redefine its growth trajectory.
Wall Street's consensus projects first-quarter revenue of approximately $617 million, with earnings per share (EPS) expected between 3 and 4 cents, according to public estimate aggregators. Hims shares closed Friday's regular session at $28.46, edging up to $29.07 in after-hours trading, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the report.
Revenue Guidance and Subscriber Base
In February, the company provided first-quarter revenue guidance in the range of $600 million to $625 million, alongside projected adjusted EBITDA of $35 million to $55 million. For the full fiscal year 2025, Hims reported revenue of $2.35 billion—a robust 59% year-over-year increase—and ended the period with over 2.5 million subscribers. These figures underscore the platform's strong top-line momentum, but the spotlight now turns to the sustainability of that growth amid regulatory and competitive shifts.
The GLP-1 Transition
GLP-1 receptor agonists, typically prescribed for type 2 diabetes and obesity, have been a significant growth driver for online health platforms. However, in March, Hims announced it would cease advertising compounded GLP-1s and instead direct U.S. patients toward a broader selection of FDA-approved medications, starting with Novo Nordisk's offerings. Compounded drugs, which are custom-mixed by pharmacies, are not identical to branded, approved treatments—a distinction that has drawn regulatory scrutiny.
Novo Nordisk has since settled its lawsuit with Hims, agreeing to make Wegovy and Ozempic available on the platform at self-pay prices. The settlement comes as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) compete fiercely for dominance in the weight-loss drug market. Hims CEO Andrew Dudum characterized the shift to branded drugs as a pivotal growth catalyst, telling Reuters, "That's where we see growth in the business." The company's CEO, Mike Doustdar, noted that the price gap between branded and compounded alternatives has narrowed significantly, making authentic products more accessible.
Analyst Perspectives Diverge
Views on Hims remain mixed. Deutsche Bank analyst George Hill recently lowered his price target to $25 from $28, maintaining a Hold rating, citing FDA compounding restrictions, ongoing litigation with Novo Nordisk, and the resolution of the semaglutide shortage as headwinds. Conversely, BofA Securities analyst Allen Lutz raised his target to $32 from $30, also at Hold, describing an update from Eli Lilly's LillyDirect as "neutral-to-positive" for the sector.
Industry context adds nuance: healthcare technology stocks have risen an average of 6.1% over the past month, but Hims shares surged 49.6% in that same period, outpacing peers. GoodRx Holdings (GDRX) topped revenue forecasts last quarter, while Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) beat estimates but still saw its stock slip—underscoring that guidance and profitability metrics, not just top-line growth, are driving valuations in digital health.
International Expansion and Strategic Moves
To reduce its reliance on the U.S. weight-loss market, Hims in February agreed to acquire Australia's Eucalyptus for up to $1.15 billion. The deal extends the company's footprint into Australia and Japan, while strengthening its presence in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada. However, Leerink analyst Michael Cherny cautioned that the "dominant theme" remains the uncertain outlook for compounded GLP-1s, noting that branded alternatives may not match the profitability of compounded versions in the near term—especially if marketing expenses stay elevated or input costs remain high. He added that international growth could provide a boost, but stressed that "the more important component for the stock is how Hims progresses with its weight-loss business."
Key Metrics to Watch
Monday's earnings call will focus on subscriber growth, average monthly revenue per user, gross margin trends, and any fresh details regarding the Novo Nordisk transition. Simply meeting revenue expectations may not suffice; the company must demonstrate that its next growth phase is less vulnerable to regulatory pressures, pharmaceutical supplier dynamics, and the intensifying price competition surrounding obesity treatments.
