U.S. stock markets were closed Monday for Memorial Day, delaying Intel's next trading session until Tuesday. The chipmaker finished Friday at $119.84, gaining 1.13% and capping off a shaky week for semiconductor names.
The question now is whether AI demand for server chips and factory supply can keep supporting the stock's steep run into 2026. Intel shares head into the holiday-shortened week with a clearer setup than a month back, as investors assess if the company's AI push can sustain the rally after its quick move.
Intel reported Q1 revenue up 7% to $13.6 billion and guided for Q2 revenue between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion. However, it posted a GAAP loss of 73 cents per share, while non-GAAP earnings came in at 29 cents a share. CEO Lip-Bu Tan pointed to rising demand for Intel CPUs and its wafer and advanced-packaging products, driven by the shift to inference work and 'agentic' AI.
Nvidia last week gave a second-quarter revenue forecast of $91 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, and announced an $80 billion buyback. But eMarketer's Jacob Bourne noted the lingering question is whether Nvidia can show that AI spending will hold up as workloads move to inference and competitors like Google, Amazon, AMD and Intel ramp up their own chips.
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet told Reuters the chip market will be 'supply-limited for quite a while,' pointing to demand from AI, satellites and robots pressuring production. Intel plans to start using ASML's High NA EUV machines early, which could boost its foundry business.
However, execution risk remains. 'TSMC is the real bottleneck,' said SemiAnalysis President Doug O'Loughlin. Seaport Research's Jay Goldberg added that 'no company in history' has fallen behind Moore's law and then caught up.
U.S. stocks climbed on Friday, with the Dow settling at a record and the S&P 500 posting its eighth consecutive weekly win. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also gained ground. Nvidia dropped 1.9%. James St. Aubin at Ocean Park Asset Management said earnings have been solid and headlines out of the Middle East are 'encouraging.'
The risk for Intel is clear: if demand for AI servers drops, if foundry customers don't follow through, or if there are new setbacks for Intel's manufacturing ramp, shareholders could be stuck with a company still burning cash and posting losses. Michael Schulman at Cerity Partners said Intel is making a 'high-stakes gamble' on trying to compete with TSMC by 2030.
Intel faces an early test in how it trades coming out of the holiday. Bigger moves could depend on macro data and chip earnings, with the U.S. calendar this week bringing GDP, jobless claims, and PCE inflation data.
