New York, September 6, 2026 – Kalshi is aggressively courting football-season traders with a $25 trading credit promotion, a move that underscores the intensifying and costly battle for dominance in the prediction market space. The offer, verified by Action Network, provides eligible new U.S. customers with $25 in trading credit after they execute $25 in qualifying event-contract trades. This credit is non-withdrawable and subject to Kalshi's account-specific terms, with referral credits typically expiring after seven days.
The promotion is a strategic investment in Kalshi's core business, as sports contracts, particularly football, are the company's primary economic engine. A recent Ninth Circuit opinion revealed that sports generated over 90% of Kalshi's 2025 trading volume and 95% of its revenue. The $25 credit aims to seed liquidity as the football season accelerates, but it also places a tangible value on each new signup, raising questions about the long-term profitability of such customer acquisition tactics.
Kalshi has not disclosed key performance metrics for this campaign, including the number of claims, funded accounts, retention rates, or revenue per acquired user. Contract volume alone would not provide clarity, as a single customer can trade repeatedly. The company's substantial private backing, including a $1 billion Series F round at a $22 billion valuation announced in May, sets a high bar for generating durable revenue rather than just short-term trading spikes.
The competitive landscape is heating up, with public brokerages and sportsbooks investing heavily in their own prediction products. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) is a notable player, reporting $156 million in event-contract revenue for the second quarter, a tenfold increase year-over-year. Customers traded 13.6 billion contracts through its hub, though July volume eased 5% from June. Robinhood's Form 10-Q confirms its use of KalshiEx for contracts, and it is also developing its own exchange, Rothera, with Susquehanna International Group. HOOD closed at $122.11 on Friday, down 2.09%.
DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) is facing similar pressures, with second-quarter sports consumer volume up 15% to $13.1 billion, but revenue down 5% to $1.443 billion due to favorable customer outcomes and higher promotional reinvestment. The company did not separate costs for its Sportsbook and Predictions products. Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) is earlier in the cycle, calling FanDuel Predicts revenue immaterial and expecting second-half gross revenue to be offset by customer-acquisition investment before growth in 2027. DKNG closed at $24.01, down 0.74%, and FLUT at $100.11, down 2.18%.
The legal environment adds another layer of uncertainty. The Ninth Circuit ruled that Kalshi was unlikely to prove federal commodities law pre-empts Nevada gaming rules for sports contracts, dissolving an injunction that had restrained enforcement. However, a Third Circuit decision in April supported Kalshi's pre-emption argument in New Jersey. Robinhood has warned that court or regulatory action could halt some event contracts in certain states, a risk that also applies to DraftKings and Flutter's prediction products.
With U.S. markets closed on Monday for Labor Day, Tuesday's trading may reflect weekend discussions, but one promotion is unlikely to determine a winner. The real test will come as football customers use their credits and the industry observes whether trading activity persists. Robinhood's next quarterly event-contract revenue and monthly volume will be telling. DraftKings must demonstrate that Predictions growth can outpace promotional costs, while Flutter needs to move FanDuel Predicts beyond immaterial revenue without extending its subsidy period.
Kalshi's $25 campaign confirms that the land grab for prediction market share is well-funded, but it does not establish customer value. Retention after the seven-day credit window will be a more meaningful indicator of success than the initial signup headline.
