Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) edged up 0.57% in Nasdaq premarket trading to $6.175 on Wednesday, continuing its recent rally as investors bet on the company's pivot from bitcoin mining to AI data-center infrastructure. The stock closed Tuesday at $6.14 and has surged approximately 98% over the past month, according to TradingView data, pushing its market capitalization to roughly $3.7 billion.
The move higher appears tied to speculative chatter around potential AI data-center leases rather than any announced contracts. A Stocktwits post flagged by TradingView noted that retail traders are monitoring for news of a first lease agreement, following a social media post by CEO Benjamin Gagnon. Gagnon stated that the company had engaged with 129 investors since its May 11 earnings call and plans to scale back further investor calls.
Keel is repositioning itself as a hard-infrastructure provider for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI, moving away from its origins as a bitcoin miner. On the May 11 call, management reiterated its target of signing three leases before year-end: one at Panther Creek and one at Sharon, both in Pennsylvania, and one at Moses Lake, Washington. While zoning is complete, land-development and environmental permits remain pending.
The company's financial results for the May quarter were mixed. Revenue fell 23% to $37 million, and Keel reported a loss from continuing operations of $128 million, or 21 cents per share. As of May 8, the company held liquidity of approximately $533 million, including $336 million in unrestricted cash and $197 million in unencumbered bitcoin. CFO Jonathan Mir told analysts that liquidity supports development through the lease execution stage at the three target sites.
Analysts have responded with cautious optimism. H.C. Wainwright's Mike Colonnese raised his price target to $5.50 from $3.70, maintaining a Buy rating, citing permit progress and potential colocation leasing opportunities. Chardan also lifted its target to $5.50 from $4.50 with a Buy rating. The FactSet consensus gives Keel an average Buy rating and a mean price target of $5.51. However, the stock is currently trading above these targets, signaling that investor expectations may already exceed analyst projections.
The broader market is seeing a rotation from bitcoin mining to AI compute plays. Shares of Cipher Digital, TeraWulf, and IREN also moved higher in early trading Tuesday, with investors seemingly overlooking softer bitcoin prices. Blockspace highlighted gains in IREN, which has similarly shifted from mining to data centers.
Despite the enthusiasm, risks remain. Keel's 10-Q filing warns that its push into HPC and AI may not generate profits and that building out data centers is capital-intensive, with financing still a risk. Potential delays in permitting, longer-than-expected lease negotiations, or weaker lease terms could weigh on the stock. The short-term bear case centers on these uncertainties, which could lead to a correction if expectations outpace execution.
