Keel Infrastructure Corp. (NASDAQ:KEEL) continued its upward momentum on Friday, rising 1.7% to $4.92 in premarket trading after a 6.1% gain in the previous session. The two-day rally of 9% has helped the stock recover some ground, though it remains roughly 34% below its intraday high of $7.37 set on June 22. Regular trading on Nasdaq had not yet begun.
The central question for investors is not whether Keel controls enough power capacity, but how much of that capacity can be monetized through long-term data-center leases. Based on Thursday’s market capitalization of about $2.93 billion, a simple equity-value-per-megawatt calculation reveals a wide divergence depending on which capacity figure is used.
Valuation Gap Highlights Risk
Using near-term U.S. secured gross capacity of 478 megawatts (including Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake), the implied equity value per MW is roughly $6.13 million. Expanding the denominator to include secured Quebec capacity brings the total to 648 MW, yielding about $4.52 million per MW. However, if the full identified pipeline of 2,161 MW is considered—including 1,513 MW of unsecured capacity—the figure drops to around $1.36 million per MW.
That 4.5-fold spread underscores the core valuation risk. The lowest figure assumes Keel will eventually commercialize capacity that is still subject to utility studies, generation plans, or other development work. Additionally, gross capacity measures total site power before electricity used for cooling and other infrastructure, so it is not directly comparable to the power ultimately available for computing equipment.
New Leadership to Drive Conversion
This week, Keel appointed Ganesh Aiyer as president to lead the conversion of its power portfolio into commercial partnerships. Aiyer, formerly chief business officer at Digital Realty Trust (NYSE:DLR), will oversee commercial and pipeline expansion. He stated his goal is to “convert our power portfolio into long-term partnerships.”
Some of KEEL’s recent gains appear tied to broader buying in former bitcoin miners repositioning as AI-infrastructure developers. Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR) rose 6.5% on Thursday and added another 1.3% in premarket trading. Hut 8 (NASDAQ:HUT) was also up 1.3% premarket after a nearly flat close. These parallel moves suggest KEEL’s rebound was not solely driven by company-specific news.
Commercial Gap with Peers
Keel’s commercial progress lags behind some competitors. TeraWulf (NASDAQ:WULF) recently announced a 20-year lease with Anthropic covering about 401 MW of critical IT load and roughly $19 billion in contracted revenue. Hut 8 disclosed a 15-year lease for 352 MW of IT capacity with a base-term value of $9.8 billion. As Hut 8 CEO Asher Genoot said in May, “Power is the foundational layer,” but these contracts show that securing electricity is only the first step.
Keel has the funding to pursue leases. It reported $533 million in liquidity as of May 8, including $336 million in unrestricted cash and $197 million in unencumbered bitcoin. CFO Jonathan Mir said this amount “fully funds the capital required to advance Panther Creek, Sharon, and Moses Lake through lease execution.” The company later issued $458 million of 1.25% convertible notes due in 2032, with an initial conversion price of $7.41—about 35% above Thursday’s stock price.
Downside Risks and Next Milestones
The downside case involves delays in tenant decisions, permits, or power connections. Keel’s first-quarter revenue fell 23% to $37 million, while its operating loss widened to $98 million. Of its identified pipeline, 1,513 MW remains unclassified as secured gross capacity. Prolonged development spending without lease income would make the $6.13 million valuation per near-term secured megawatt harder to defend.
The next firm signal for investors is likely a signed lease or a utility and permitting milestone at one of the three near-term U.S. sites. Until then, KEEL’s two-day bounce shows that investors remain willing to buy into the sector, but the 4.5-fold valuation range highlights how much depends on Aiyer’s ability to turn potential power into contracted revenue.
