Keel Infrastructure Corp. (NASDAQ: KEEL) saw its shares climb 3.1% to $4.835 in early Nasdaq trading on Thursday, following a bullish initiation from BTIG. The investment firm set a price target of $8 per share, implying a potential 65% gain from the opening price. The stock reached an intraday high of $5.0497 earlier in the session.
BTIG analyst Gregory Lewis initiated coverage with a Buy rating, highlighting Keel's power portfolio as "attractive." He expects the portfolio to support the company's first colocation agreement as it transitions into high-performance computing and artificial intelligence applications. The $8 target is 25% above the consensus estimate of $6.40 from MarketScreener.
Despite the optimistic outlook, the market remains cautious about pipeline conversion. Keel currently lists 2.2 gigawatts of capacity in North America, with approximately 1.5 GW—or 68%—still classified as expansion capacity. This portion is under review in applications, utility studies, or behind-the-meter assessments. The company reports 341 MW as energized and 430 MW as secured, with "secured" referring to signed utility agreements for future power delivery.
The valuation bridge underscores the execution risk. Based on 603.83 million shares and net debt of about $52 million, the current share price of $4.835 implies a preliminary equity value of $2.92 billion and a net enterprise value of $2.97 billion. The consensus analyst target of $6.40 suggests a 32% upside to $3.86 billion in equity, while BTIG's $8 target points to $4.83 billion in equity, a 65% increase. The potential gain is largely driven by power-to-contract exposure.
Recent developments bolster the bull case. Keel secured municipal consent to relocate and reuse 96 MW in Sherbrooke, Quebec, though approval from the province's economy ministry is still pending. This move could accelerate pipeline conversion and strengthen the company's position in the data center and AI markets.
The broader sector saw gains as well. Hut 8 Corp. (NASDAQ: HUT) surged 9.3%, TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: WULF) rose 5.8%, and Applied Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: APLD) gained 3.0% around 9:47 a.m. EDT. Keel's move was relatively modest compared to peers, suggesting room for further upside if catalysts materialize.
Risks remain significant. The Sherbrooke project requires clearance from provincial authorities, and building data centers will increase capital intensity. Customer acquisitions and Bitcoin values are also important factors. The key catalyst for a re-rating is a signed and funded colocation agreement. Until then, the $8 scenario depends on the pace of pipeline conversion.
Keel's stock has risen approximately 106% year-to-date, shifting focus from momentum to execution. Investors will be watching closely for any signs of progress in securing colocation deals and converting expansion capacity into revenue-generating assets.
