Shares of Keel Infrastructure Corp. (NASDAQ: KEEL) advanced 6.0% on Friday, closing at $3.51, after the company disclosed $819 million in total liquidity, representing 37.8% of its $2.17 billion market capitalization. The boost comes amid a turbulent week following the company's second-quarter earnings report, as the former Bitcoin miner transitions into AI data center development.
Liquidity Breakdown
As of August 7, Keel's liquidity comprised $698 million in unrestricted cash and $121 million in unencumbered Bitcoin. This marks a $286 million increase, or 53.7%, from the $533 million reported on May 8. The cash buffer is seen as a critical support for the stock, providing the company with additional runway to negotiate long-term agreements.
Funding the Transition
Part of the liquidity was raised through debt. Keel issued $458 million in 1.25% convertible notes due 2032, with a conversion price of $7.41 per share—a 111% premium to Friday's close. Net proceeds were approximately $445 million after expenses and capped call costs. The notes could lead to dilution if the stock price exceeds the conversion threshold.
Operational Challenges Persist
The transition to AI data centers continues to weigh on financial results. Revenue from continuing operations in Q2 2026 fell by half to $30 million, compared to $60 million in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a loss of $24 million, against a $7 million profit in Q2 2025. The operating loss of $141 million included $84 million in depreciation.
CEO Ben Gagnon expressed optimism about progress at the company's three main sites, stating that permitting is nearing completion and that multiple potential tenants are in discussions for each location. "Power is the constraint. Everything else is downstream of it," Gagnon said.
Development Pipeline
Keel's pipeline includes 341 MW energized, 430 MW secured through utility contracts, and 1.5 GW in expansion projects, totaling 2.2 GW. However, the missing piece remains a contracted high-performance computing (HPC) tenant. No colocation lease has been finalized, which would be crucial for converting the pipeline into cash flow.
Analyst Sentiment Mixed
Wall Street remains divided. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Stephen Glagola raised his price target to $4.50 from $3.00, maintaining a Market Perform rating. BTIG has a Buy rating with an $8.00 target, while Citizens JMP rates the stock Market Outperform with a $10.00 target. The consensus price target is $6.25, implying a 78.1% upside from Friday's close.
Market Context
The stock opened at $4.01 but gave back most of its early gains, with volume of 41.1 million shares, close to the three-month average of 44.6 million. Shares remain 52% below the 52-week high of $7.37. The broader market's focus on interest rates could impact pre-revenue infrastructure names, as their long-term cash flows are sensitive to borrowing costs. Investors will watch the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, due Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT, for clues on rate policy.
Risks Ahead
Keel has yet to secure an HPC tenant, and delays in permitting, construction, or power delivery could increase expenses. Project financing may be affected by customer credit quality. Liquidity is also subject to Bitcoin price volatility, and the convertible notes could dilute shareholders if the stock rises above $7.41.
Friday's valuation reflects a dual bet: that Keel's cash position strengthens its negotiating position, and that it will eventually land a lease that justifies the infrastructure build-out. Until then, the stock remains a speculative play on the AI data center boom.
